Poll Reveals Widening Partisan Divide on Election Trust Despite Lack of Fraud Evidence

President Donald Trump’s sustained campaign to undermine confidence in American elections has gained significant traction among the public, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, creating potential vulnerabilities for misinformation ahead of November’s midterm elections.

The six-day survey completed Monday revealed deep partisan divisions in how Americans perceive election integrity, with Republicans overwhelmingly expressing concerns about widespread fraud despite extensive research finding such instances extremely rare.

Nearly half (46%) of respondents agreed with the statement that large numbers of fraudulent ballots are cast by non-citizens in U.S. elections. The partisan breakdown revealed a stark divide: 82% of Republicans agreed with this assessment compared to just 18% of Democrats and 38% of independents.

Similar divides appeared regarding mail-in voting, with 53% of all respondents expressing concern about fraudulent absentee ballots. Again, the partisan gap was pronounced – 83% of Republicans worried about mail-in fraud versus only 33% of Democrats.

Election security experts see these findings as evidence that years of messaging by Trump and his allies has resonated deeply with Republican voters, particularly claims about non-citizen voting and mail-in ballot security that have been repeatedly debunked through audits and academic research.

“People are responding to them, particularly Republicans, because they’re listening to the leaders that they trust, and it’s creating this vulnerability in people to believe lies about the election,” said Kelly Rader, research director at States United Democracy Center, a nonpartisan group focused on safeguarding elections.

The poll suggests many Americans may be primed to accept claims of wrongdoing in November, when Democrats are favored to win back the House of Representatives while control of the Senate remains in play. Political analysts note this comes amid voter discontent over the war with Iran and persistent inflation concerns.

Perhaps most concerning for democracy advocates is the poll’s finding that 63% of Republicans continue to believe Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him – a figure that has remained relatively unchanged for years despite the complete lack of evidence supporting allegations of widespread fraud. By contrast, only 9% of Democrats and 21% of independents believe Trump lost due to wrongdoing.

Despite these divisions, the poll did reveal areas of agreement. A strong bipartisan majority of Americans expressed confidence that their own ballots would be counted accurately, with 79% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans sharing this view. Rader pointed to this finding as a “silver lining,” noting that research shows this personal confidence correlates strongly with voter turnout.

There was also substantial bipartisan support for voter identification requirements, with 77% of all respondents backing the idea, including 63% of Democrats and 95% of Republicans. However, the poll did not address more controversial Republican proposals like the SAVE Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register for federal elections. The legislation has passed the House but faces significant opposition in the Senate, where Democrats have warned it could lead to voter disenfranchisement.

Americans showed limited enthusiasm for Trump’s more extreme suggestions regarding election oversight. Only 28% supported deploying troops to polling places, with Republicans split on the issue – 45% in favor and 54% opposed. However, 62% of Republicans did support having federal law enforcement present at polling locations, compared to just 23% of Democrats and 36% of independents.

The Reuters/Ipsos online poll surveyed 4,557 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

As November approaches, election officials across the country are preparing for what may be a contentious election cycle in an environment where significant portions of the electorate have been primed to question results, particularly if their preferred candidates don’t prevail.