Fact Check: Republicans’ Statements on Gas Prices Found to Be Inaccurate

Republican lawmakers have been making false claims about gasoline prices as they rise due to the ongoing Iran conflict, potentially creating political risks for the party ahead of upcoming elections.

The national average for regular gasoline reached $4.30 per gallon on Thursday, marking a significant increase of 27 cents from the previous week and $1.32 since the war with Iran began in late February. This spike comes as American consumers are already feeling pressure from inflation across various sectors of the economy.

Several high-ranking Republican officials have recently made demonstrably false statements about fuel prices in public appearances. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who chairs the Senate Republicans’ campaign committee, incorrectly claimed during a Fox Business interview that “gas prices continue to come down.” This statement directly contradicted reality, as prices had increased across every state.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, responded to Scott’s assertion with disbelief, posting “LOL WHAT? EVERY SINGLE STATE IS HIGHER.” Data from AAA showed that even in Scott’s home state of South Carolina, prices had increased across all measured timeframes – up 1 cent from the previous day, 24 cents from the previous week, and $1.23 since the Iran conflict began.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made equally misleading claims during a congressional hearing when he suggested California’s gas prices were “8 bucks” per gallon when the Iran war started. In reality, California’s average price for regular gasoline on February 28 was $4.64 per gallon, according to AAA data. While a handful of stations in California – fewer than five out of approximately 10,500 tracked by GasBuddy – did charge $8 or more, these were outliers known for exceptionally high pricing.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise added to the confusion during a CNBC interview, falsely claiming that Americans were paying “almost $6 a gallon for gasoline” two years ago, suggesting current prices represent a significant improvement. When challenged by host Joe Kernen, Scalise insisted prices were “over 30% below where we were just two years ago.”

This claim was easily disproven by AAA data showing the national average exactly two years earlier (April 30, 2024) was $3.66 per gallon – significantly lower than the current $4.30 average. When asked for clarification, a Scalise spokesperson said he was referring to 2022, when California’s average hit a record $6.44 per gallon – but this was four years ago, not two, and represented a regional high, not the national average.

The national average has never reached $6 per gallon, with its all-time peak occurring in June 2022 at $5.02 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Scalise’s claim that prices are “in the $3s” holds true for 16 states including his home state of Louisiana, 34 states and the District of Columbia were already above $4 per gallon.

These mischaracterizations come at a sensitive time for Republicans, as rising fuel prices could become a significant election issue. Gasoline prices have direct and visible impacts on American households, affecting both transportation costs and the prices of consumer goods, making them a particularly salient political vulnerability during periods of international conflict that disrupt global oil markets.

As the conflict with Iran continues, analysts will be closely watching how fuel prices affect consumer sentiment and whether Republican messaging on the economy evolves to address the reality of increasing costs at the pump.