Expert Warns Potential U.S. Strike on Iran’s Kharg Island Could Trigger Energy Crisis

Energy security experts are sounding the alarm over reports that the Trump administration is considering military action against Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. Such a strike could spark broader regional instability and trigger retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the Middle East.

Kharg Island, located approximately 15 miles off Iran’s mainland in the northern Persian Gulf, handles between 90-95% of Iran’s crude and petroleum exports. The island serves as the regime’s primary oil revenue hub, with storage capacity estimated at 15-20 million barrels and daily export capabilities ranging from 1.5-3 million barrels under current sanctions, with potential to reach 5 million barrels per day at full capacity.

Retired Army Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt recently told Fox Business that while significant ground operations seem unlikely in the region, “an assault on Kharg Island is in the offing” as part of the broader Operation Epic Fury.

Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International and a leading energy security analyst, warned that targeting Kharg would align with Washington’s “energy dominance” doctrine but could have severe consequences for global markets.

“Interrupting Iran’s main export terminal would likely trigger a major oil price spike, market instability and regional retaliation against energy infrastructure,” Vakhshouri told Fox News Digital. “Kharg currently acts as a strategic restraint point in the conflict.”

Former President Donald Trump’s interest in the island reportedly dates back to 1988, when he suggested targeting Kharg in response to Iranian aggression. “I’d be harsh on Iran. They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look like a bunch of fools,” Trump said at the time. “One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.”

The strategic significance of Kharg extends beyond its immediate tactical value. The island’s position is crucial to global energy markets, as tankers leaving the terminal must pass through the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow choke point that handles approximately one-fifth of global oil trade.

Vakhshouri noted that the island fits squarely within Trump’s long-touted “energy dominance” doctrine, which prioritizes maximizing U.S. oil and gas production, expanding exports, and leveraging American energy strength as a geopolitical tool. However, she suggested that holding the threat of a strike in reserve as a pressure point—rather than immediately attacking—may be a more strategic option.

The potential consequences of disrupting Kharg’s operations extend far beyond Iran itself. According to Vakhshouri, if Iran lost export capability through Kharg, it could diminish their restraint and shift risks toward further strikes on regional energy facilities.

“More importantly, it could lead to prolonged disruption of oil flows and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,” she warned.

The impact on global energy markets would be difficult to predict precisely, with Vakhshouri noting that “putting a price ceiling on such a scenario would depend largely on Iran’s retaliatory actions.” However, she was certain about one outcome: “prolonged volatility and uncertainty in the market, driven by fears of further retaliation or an extended cycle of disruption.”

The considerations come amid ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, with recent U.S. and Israeli military actions already rattling energy markets and disrupting oil flows through critical Middle Eastern waterways.

The White House has not yet responded to requests for comment on the reported plans regarding Kharg Island.