Green Party Challenges Investment Bank’s Migration Report Amid Political Tensions

Far-right media outlets are amplifying claims from a recent immigration report by investment bank Panmure Liberum, which projects significant population growth under a hypothetical Green Party government. The report, which has not been made public, has drawn sharp criticism from Green Party representatives who question its methodology and conclusions.

According to the analysis by Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Liberum, a Green election victory in 2029 would purportedly increase the UK population from approximately 71.5 million to 75.9 million by 2034, suggesting net migration of around 900,000 people annually during that period.

“These figures are made up nonsense and we’ve been given no idea how they are calculated,” a Green Party spokesperson stated in response to the projections.

The timing of the report comes as the Green Party has been experiencing a surge in support in recent months, positioning it as a potential challenger to the right-wing Reform UK party. Political analysts suggest this may explain the eagerness with which certain media outlets have seized upon the report’s claims.

French, who previously served in government roles and has advocated for deregulation, writing about “taking a chainsaw to red tape,” also contributes columns to The Times. However, without public access to the full report, independent verification of its methodology remains impossible.

Speaking to The Telegraph, a Green Party spokesperson suggested the economist’s projections appear to be based on an assumption of “an ‘open borders’ approach, which is not our current policy.” They emphasized that “The Greens support a fair and managed migration system – successive governments have presided over a broken and unjust system.”

Immigration policy has become increasingly contentious in British politics. The Green Party has taken a notably different approach from other parties, focusing on systemic economic factors rather than targeting migrants. In comments to the Daily Mail, a party spokesperson addressed public concerns about immigration by connecting them to broader economic challenges: “People are concerned about the impacts of immigration because of a massive affordability crisis, but unlike other parties, we won’t scapegoat migrants for the unfairness created by our rigged economic system.”

Context is crucial when evaluating such projections. Under the Conservative government, net migration reached 944,000 in 2023, a figure similar to what the report predicts under a hypothetical Green administration. This suggests that even if French’s numbers were accurate, they would not represent unprecedented migration levels for the UK.

Economic experts have long highlighted that immigration provides significant benefits to the British economy. The UK faces multiple demographic and economic challenges that drive immigration demand, including an aging population, declining birth rates, and persistent skills shortages across multiple sectors. Chronic underinvestment in infrastructure and public services has exacerbated these issues.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski has repeatedly emphasized that public frustration should be directed at systemic economic problems rather than migrants. “We shouldn’t have a race to the bottom on migration. We should have a race to the top on public services!” Polanski stated in December.

The controversy highlights the increasingly polarized nature of immigration debates in British politics, with investment institutions and media outlets often framing the issue differently than parties like the Greens, who advocate for addressing root economic causes rather than restricting migration.

As the UK approaches future elections, debates around immigration policy, population growth, and economic priorities are likely to remain central to political discourse, with different stakeholders presenting conflicting narratives about the implications of various policy approaches.