Flight Reductions May Continue or Worsen if Government Shutdown Persists, Experts Warn

The FAA has begun reducing air traffic at 40 major airports across the United States as the government shutdown stretches into its 40th day, forcing air traffic controllers to work without pay and creating unprecedented staffing shortages in the nation’s aviation system.

Starting Friday, the Federal Aviation Administration implemented a 10% reduction in flights across high-volume markets including Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Orlando, Miami, and San Francisco. Major metropolitan areas with multiple airports, such as New York and Chicago, will see reductions at several facilities simultaneously.

The decision comes as air traffic controllers, who have been working without pay since the shutdown began on October 1, are about to miss their second consecutive paycheck. Many controllers are now calling in sick or refusing to work, creating dangerous staffing gaps in a system already stretched thin.

“This would affect thousands of flights per day, and tens of thousands of passengers potentially seeing their flights canceled — a major disruption,” said Marc Scribner, a senior transportation policy analyst at the libertarian Reason Foundation think tank.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford emphasized that the reductions are a preventative measure taken in response to early warning signs, including increased safety reports from pilots suggesting air traffic controllers are experiencing heightened levels of fatigue.

“I’m not aware in my 35-year history in the aviation market where we’ve had a situation where we’re taking these kinds of measures,” Bedford said at a news conference Wednesday. “We’re not going to wait for a safety problem to truly manifest itself when the early indicators are telling us we can take action today.”

Air traffic controllers, considered essential federal employees, have been required to work throughout the shutdown without pay, often putting in six-day workweeks plus mandatory overtime. The mounting stress and financial hardship have led to increasing numbers of controllers calling out sick or considering resignation.

“If the shutdown continues, staffing levels won’t improve over what they are right now,” Scribner noted. “If anything, they will continue to deteriorate as controllers call out sick or perhaps even resign. So I would expect it would not get better as long as the shutdown continues.”

Transportation officials have been careful to emphasize that safety remains their top priority. Bedford assured the public that “the system is extremely safe today and will be extremely safe tomorrow,” but warned that if pressures continue to build, additional measures may be necessary.

Richard Stern, director of the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget at The Heritage Foundation, believes these reductions will likely continue until the shutdown ends. “Unfortunately, I think it’s going to have to continue until the shutdown ends, because they’re running through resources that they don’t have until this funding again,” Stern said.

The Department of Transportation, which oversees the FAA, has not provided clarity on how long these flight reductions might last. However, there appears to be a potential breakthrough in sight, as reports indicate that enough Senate Democrats are now willing to back a revamped plan to reopen the government.

Experts emphasize that travelers shouldn’t worry about safety, as the FAA will not allow unsafe flights to operate. “They’re not going to allow unsafe flights. So whatever that means in terms of staffing capability and workflow, they are going to reduce the flights in order to maintain that very high level of safety,” Scribner explained.

However, passengers should prepare for significant disruptions to their travel plans in the coming days and possibly weeks if the shutdown persists. With the busy holiday travel season approaching, the timing of these reductions could create cascading problems throughout the national aviation system.

The unprecedented nature of the current situation has left many wondering what might happen next. As Stern noted, “No one really knows exactly what the next steps are after this,” highlighting the uncharted territory the government has entered regarding what minimum services it’s required to provide despite expired funding.