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Russian Military Commander Makes False Claims About Territorial Gains in Ukraine, Analysis Shows
Russian military commander Sergei Rudskoy has significantly exaggerated the extent of Russian territorial gains in Ukraine, according to a detailed assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Rudskoy claimed that since the beginning of 2026, Russian forces have captured 900 square kilometers of territory and 42 settlements in Ukraine. He further asserted that in 2025, Russian occupying forces seized more than 6,700 square kilometers and over 300 settlements across Ukrainian territory.
The commander’s statement included specific claims about Russian control over 26 settlements in Sumy Oblast and 15 in Kharkiv Oblast, including the alleged occupation of strategic cities such as Vovchansk and Kupiansk. Rudskoy also falsely stated that Russian forces control approximately half of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast.
According to his assertions, Russian forces took control of 86 towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast last year, including the important industrial centers of Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Myrnohrad. His claims extended to Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, where he alleged Russian forces had captured Huliaipole and seized 160 square kilometers with 11 settlements since early 2026.
However, evidence gathered by the ISW contradicts these claims substantially. The institute’s analysis indicates that Russia has actually captured only 19 settlements and 572 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of 2026—a discrepancy of 23 settlements and 328 square kilometers from Rudskoy’s claims.
For 2025, the ISW estimates Russian forces occupied only 252 settlements, which is 50 fewer than what the Russian commander claimed. In Sumy Oblast, ISW confirmed Russian control of only nine settlements, while in northern Kharkiv Oblast, they verified the capture of just seven settlements.
In the strategic Kupiansk-Lyman sector, Russian forces have taken control of 17 settlements according to ISW’s assessment. The institute also disputes Rudskoy’s claims about Kostiantynivka, noting that Russian troops control approximately 7% of the city’s territory rather than the claimed 50%.
The situation in Zaporizhzhya Oblast also differs significantly from Russian claims. ISW reports that Russian forces captured only 99 square kilometers and three new settlements in 2026, including Huliaipole. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defense Forces have successfully regained 86 square kilometers along the administrative border between Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, with Russian forces losing full or partial control over 18 villages in this area.
ISW analysts suggest that Russia is deliberately targeting small villages along the international border and inflating these advances to create a false narrative about inevitable Russian victory in Ukraine. This propaganda effort appears aimed at persuading Western nations to concede to Kremlin demands by presenting an exaggerated image of Russian military capabilities.
The institute highlighted the significant cost of Russia’s limited territorial gains, particularly in Sumy Oblast. In what ISW describes as the “gray zone,” Russian forces advanced an average of just 13-15 square kilometers per day throughout 2025, suffering approximately 83 casualties (killed and wounded soldiers) for these minimal gains.
These findings underscore the continuing pattern of Russian information operations that seek to misrepresent battlefield realities while downplaying the substantial costs of their military campaign in Ukraine, as the war enters another year with no clear resolution in sight.
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9 Comments
It’s really disheartening to see Russia continue to spread disinformation about the war in Ukraine. Falsely claiming control over towns and cities is a transparent attempt to distort the reality on the ground. We need to stay vigilant and fact-check these kinds of misleading statements to ensure we have an accurate understanding of the situation.
These false claims by the Russian military commander are quite brazen. Clearly they are grasping at straws to try and shore up domestic support and international sympathy. But I’m glad organizations like ISW are closely monitoring and debunking this misinformation.
Russia’s use of false claims to downplay their setbacks in Ukraine is deeply troubling. Fabricating narratives about territorial control is a clear effort to undermine support for Ukraine. It’s crucial that the international community sees through these attempts at manipulation and focuses on the objective facts.
This is a concerning development, but not entirely surprising given Russia’s track record of spreading disinformation around the invasion of Ukraine. Exaggerating territorial gains is a transparent attempt to project a facade of success. We need to stay vigilant and rely on credible, fact-based reporting to understand the true situation.
Russia’s use of false claims to downplay the setbacks in Ukraine is a worrying tactic. Exaggerating territorial gains and occupation is clearly an attempt to project a facade of success. It’s important that we rely on credible sources to understand the true situation on the ground.
This is a concerning development, but not entirely surprising given Russia’s track record of propaganda and distortion around the invasion. I hope the international community sees through these attempts to undermine support for Ukraine. Fact-based reporting is crucial during such a volatile conflict.
I’m not surprised that Russia is resorting to fabricated narratives to try and justify its invasion. Exaggerating territorial gains is a classic tactic to create a false sense of momentum. It’s crucial that we rely on credible, objective sources to understand the true situation in Ukraine.
It’s disheartening to see Russia continue to spread disinformation about the war in Ukraine. Falsely claiming control over towns and cities is a transparent effort to distort the reality on the ground. We need to stay vigilant and fact-check these kinds of misleading statements.
Wow, it’s really concerning to hear that Russia is spreading false claims to undermine aid for Ukraine. This kind of disinformation can be so damaging. I hope the international community sees through these attempts to distort the reality on the ground.