Venezuela Crime Drop Not Evidence of Mass Criminal Deportation to US, Experts Say

Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Venezuela and other countries are emptying their prisons and mental institutions and sending criminals to the United States. In recent speeches, Trump has pointed to a reported drop in Venezuelan crime rates—which he puts at “67%” or “72% in a year”—as evidence of this alleged policy.

However, experts monitoring Venezuela’s crime and prison systems tell a different story.

Carlos Nieto, whose non-governmental organization A Window to Freedom has monitored Venezuelan prisons for over 25 years, reports finding no evidence supporting Trump’s claim. “There is nothing that can be affirmed that establishes that there is an agreement, or that the Venezuelan government is helping criminals leave Venezuela to go to the United States,” Nieto stated.

While acknowledging that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government might be capable of such actions, Nieto emphasized that no proof exists of any systematic program to send criminals abroad.

Crime statistics in Venezuela are notoriously difficult to verify, as the government hasn’t provided reliable crime reports in years. According to Mike LaSusa, deputy director of content at InSight Crime, a think tank focused on security in the Americas, Venezuelan security officials reported a 25% drop in crime this year compared to 2023, but “the absence of official reports makes it impossible to verify the data.”

The independent Venezuelan Observatory of Violence (OVV) reported a 25% decrease in violent deaths between 2022 and 2023, not the 67-72% Trump claims. However, violent deaths in Venezuela have declined by nearly 70% since 2018, a much longer timeframe that predates the Biden administration.

Roberto Briceño-León, founder and director of the OVV, identified multiple factors behind the crime reduction—none involving sending criminals to the United States. The drop coincides with Venezuela’s economic collapse and mass exodus of nearly 8 million people since 2014.

“Crime is reduced in Venezuela due to a reduction in crime opportunities,” Briceño-León explained. “Bank robberies disappear because there is no money to steal; kidnappings are reduced because there is no cash to pay ransoms.”

Venezuelan investigative journalist Ronna Rísquez described the situation as a “humanitarian emergency” that has affected criminals as well. “Venezuela stopped being attractive for crime, because it no longer made sense to kidnap… It made no sense to steal, because everyone was poor.”

Another factor in the crime reduction has been the consolidation of organized crime in Venezuela, creating what Rísquez calls “a kind of mafia peace” in areas controlled by powerful criminal groups. Additionally, between 2015 and 2021, Venezuelan authorities reportedly carried out “a large number of alleged extrajudicial executions” of suspected criminals.

While Venezuelan migration to the U.S. has surged—with Border Patrol interceptions rising from less than 100 annually during most of the 2010s to over 200,000 in fiscal year 2023—the vast majority of Venezuelan emigrants have settled in neighboring South American countries. Colombia hosts the largest number at 2.9 million, followed by Peru with 1.5 million. The U.S. has approximately 545,000 Venezuelan immigrants.

Some Venezuelan criminals have indeed made their way to American soil. U.S. Border Patrol reported arresting 38 potential members of the notorious Tren de Aragua gang between October 2022 and October 2023. This powerful criminal organization has been linked to murders, drug trafficking, sex crimes, and robberies in several U.S. cities.

Venezuela has been working to reduce its prison population, primarily to address severe overcrowding in detention centers that were designed for temporary holding but have become de facto prisons. In March, the government announced the release of 100 inmates as part of Maduro’s directive to address this issue. The country’s prison population declined from 37,543 in 2020 to 32,200 in 2022.

However, experts say there’s no evidence these releases are connected to any plan to send criminals to the U.S. “The Venezuelan government has no known policy of selecting particular inmates to send them outside the country,” LaSusa stated.

U.S. Border Patrol Chief Jason Owens, when asked about Trump’s claim, said, “I don’t know if other countries are releasing people from jails and those folks that got released are making their way up, or not.” However, he noted that among Venezuelan migrants, “they absolutely are by and large good people,” though a “very small amount” have criminal backgrounds.

Julia Gelatt of the Migration Policy Institute summed up the assessment of many experts: “We are unaware of any action by Venezuelan authorities (or those of any other country) to empty its jails and prisons or its mental-health institutions to send criminals or people with mental-health issues to the U.S.”