Europe’s Growing Threat: The Rise of Hybrid Warfare

When do we call it a “war”? How does “war” begin? Especially nowadays, in the digital age of cyberattacks?

“If a German corvette ship is attacked and sunk by a Russian submarine, you would call that war,” said Colonel Sönke Marahrens, a military strategist with the German Armed Forces, during a recent security forces meeting. “But what if metal shavings were thrown into the ship’s gears and it is then no longer operational: Is that war?”

This question isn’t merely theoretical. The example Marahrens cited reflects an actual incident from January, when sabotage affected the operational capability of the corvette Emden shortly before its delivery to the German navy.

As an expert on hybrid threats, Marahrens raised these critical questions at the autumn conference of Germany’s National Criminal Police Office (BKA), where security specialists gathered in Wiesbaden to discuss emerging challenges to national security.

European nations are experiencing an unprecedented surge in hybrid attacks, with military personnel, police officers, politicians, and scientists all sounding alarms about the gravity of the situation.

“We are experiencing cyberattacks, the circumvention of sanctions and arson attacks on a scale we have never seen before,” warned Silke Willems of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.

These attacks present a unique challenge for law enforcement and intelligence services: identifying the perpetrators. In many cases, authorities struggle to determine whether an incident represents a Russian-sponsored attack, criminal activity, or simply infrastructure failure. Security experts report that Russia deliberately operates in this gray area to complicate response efforts by targeted nations.

Russia’s Evolving Strategy: Low-Cost Operations

According to Holger Münch, head of Germany’s National Criminal Police Office, Russia has shifted tactics to emphasize cost-effective operations utilizing what he calls “low-level agents.”

“This is now being carried out by so-called ‘low-level agents,'” Münch told DW. “These individuals often don’t even know who is hiring them, and they are willing to carry out attacks for a relatively small amount of money.”

The typical profile of these agents reveals a pattern: mostly young men with existing criminal records, many of whom immigrated to Germany from former Soviet republics. Recruitment often occurs through Russian social media platforms like Telegram, where handlers can maintain anonymity while coordinating disruptive activities.

This approach allows Russia to maintain plausible deniability while causing significant disruption at minimal cost – a hallmark of modern hybrid warfare strategy.

Germany’s Defensive Posture

In response to the growing threat, German authorities have significantly enhanced their capabilities. Münch emphasized that the BKA has expanded its cyber defense operations, noting they now possess the ability to disable criminal networks even when they utilize hundreds or thousands of servers worldwide.

Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has taken a strong stance, promising an intensified response to these attacks. “Anyone who attacks us in cyberspace should be aware: We want to and we will defend ourselves in the future! We can also disrupt and destroy,” Dobrindt declared.

The German government recently approved measures authorizing both the Federal Police and the Bundeswehr (German armed forces) to shoot down drones within German territory. Additionally, police forces are establishing specialized drone units to counter aerial threats – reflecting how hybrid warfare is forcing traditional security services to adapt to new battlefields.

Beyond Physical Attacks: The Information Battlefield

Perhaps more concerning than drones and sabotage is Russia’s extensive disinformation campaign targeting German society. Security experts warn that carefully crafted fake news and propaganda about democratic institutions and elected officials aim to erode public trust in the government.

These information operations represent another dimension of hybrid warfare, designed to destabilize Germany and other democratic countries from within by exploiting social divisions and fostering distrust. The effects are already visible, with authorities noting increasing numbers of German citizens expressing skepticism toward state institutions.

Colonel Marahrens emphasized that countering hybrid warfare requires a whole-of-society approach. The blurred boundaries between peace and conflict, between criminal acts and acts of war, demand new thinking about national resilience and security.

As Europe faces this evolving threat landscape, the definition of “war” continues to transform, requiring adaptive strategies that span traditional military, law enforcement, and information security domains. The future of European security may well depend on how effectively nations like Germany can respond to these ambiguous yet potent challenges.