Advice for travelers as the Iran war drives up fllight costs

As geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran intensify, the resulting squeeze on global oil supplies is casting a shadow over summer travel plans. Industry experts warn that rising fuel costs and potential jet fuel shortages could significantly impact flight availability and prices in the coming months.

The International Energy Agency has issued a concerning alert that European countries may face jet fuel shortages within weeks, potentially forcing airlines operating in Europe to reduce their flight schedules substantially. The global price of jet fuel has already more than doubled, jumping from approximately $99 per barrel in late February to as high as $209 per barrel in early April.

Airlines worldwide are responding to these market pressures. Air Canada announced last Friday its plans to suspend service to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport from June through late October to manage fuel costs. Other major carriers including United, Delta, Air France-KLM, SAS, Philippine Airlines, and Cathay Pacific have reduced routes and either increased ticket prices or indicated they will do so if oil transport through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

“It’s very hard for the airlines to make predictions in this environment, so they’re going to be conservative, and that’s why it’s likely that their prices will remain elevated for some time until things really stabilize,” explained Shye Gilad, a former airline captain now teaching at Georgetown University’s business school.

The situation remains volatile. Iran’s recent reversal of its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the U.S. maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, suggests the price pressures on airlines—and consequently on consumers—may continue for the foreseeable future.

Industry analyst Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, notes that even if peace is achieved, “it will take a few months for normal levels of jet fuel production and delivery to resume.” He advises travelers to book quickly if they find suitable flights at affordable prices, with one important caveat: “Do not book a Basic Economy fare,” which offers little flexibility for changes or cancellations.

Travel experts recommend booking international flights approximately two to five months in advance, while domestic trips are typically cheapest about three to six weeks before departure. Last-minute bookings, which already command premium prices under normal circumstances, are expected to become even more expensive as fuel costs impact airline pricing models.

“Remember, especially if you’re traveling on the major airlines, they’re going to have more ability to adjust fares. If you book too close to your travel date, you’re going to pay more,” Gilad warns. “The farther out you can book, the better.”

Flexibility remains a traveler’s best asset in navigating higher costs. Shifting departure or return dates by just a day or two—particularly away from peak weekends and holidays—can result in significant savings. Similarly, considering alternative departure airports or destinations can unlock better fares. Major airline hubs typically offer more flight options and potentially lower fares than smaller regional airports.

As airlines increase checked baggage fees in response to rising operational costs, packing light has become even more financially advantageous. Major U.S. carriers including Delta, American, United, Southwest, and JetBlue have all recently raised their checked bag fees, making carry-on-only travel increasingly appealing.

For travelers with loyalty program memberships, industry experts note that the value proposition of points and miles has actually improved in the current environment. Adam Morvitz, CEO of points.me, explains that while cash fares are increasing, “the number of airline points needed for many flights has not increased at the same pace.” Airlines still need to fill seats, and offering award tickets at standard redemption rates serves this purpose.

Transferring credit card points to airline loyalty programs often yields better value than redeeming directly through credit card portals. For example, American Express points transferred to Air France’s Flying Blue program can be used not only on Air France but also on partner carriers like Delta, potentially unlocking significant savings.

For travelers new to the points game, credit card sign-up bonuses can provide immediate value, with some offering enough points after meeting minimum spending requirements to cover a flight this summer. The combination of sign-up bonuses and ongoing points earned from everyday spending can substantially offset travel costs during this period of heightened airfares.

As fuel prices remain volatile and airlines continue adjusting to market conditions, travelers who act decisively, maintain flexibility, and leverage loyalty programs will be best positioned to minimize the impact of these geopolitical tensions on their summer travel plans.