What we know and don’t know about the Iran war negotiations

U.S.-Iran Talks Shrouded in Confusion as War Escalates

President Donald Trump’s unexpected claim of progress in talks with Iran has sparked confusion amid an intensifying conflict whose objectives remain unclear. The basic question many are asking: What talks?

A 15-point peace plan from the Trump administration was reportedly delivered to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries, according to a person briefed on the plan but not authorized to discuss it publicly. The move reportedly caught Israeli officials by surprise, even as they continue to press for sustained military action against Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran has publicly denied any negotiations are taking place, with military spokesman Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi vowing Tuesday that fighting “will continue until complete victory.” Behind the scenes, Pakistan, Egypt, and Gulf Arab nations are attempting to broker talks, though their efforts appear preliminary at best.

Far from de-escalating, the conflict appears to be intensifying. Tuesday saw missile barrages exchanged between Iran, Israel, and across the Middle East. The U.S. is deploying thousands more Marines to the Gulf region, and the Army is preparing to send at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East in coming days.

Trump’s objectives have shifted throughout the conflict. Initially focusing on degrading Iran’s missile capabilities and preventing nuclear weapon development, he has more recently prioritized reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil shipments that Iran effectively closed when the war began.

The president claimed U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner held talks Sunday with an Iranian leader, though he didn’t specify who. Reports suggested Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf might be involved, but Qalibaf quickly denied this on social media.

According to multiple officials speaking anonymously, the U.S. agreed “in principle” to join talks in Pakistan, though mediators are still working to convince Iran. Current diplomatic efforts reportedly focus on building trust between the U.S. and Iran, with the aim of securing a pause in hostilities and establishing a mechanism to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Leadership questions complicate matters further. Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, hasn’t been seen or directly heard from since assuming power following his father’s death in the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28. Other power centers within Iran include the military, the Revolutionary Guard, and political figures like Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Trump’s sudden declaration of diplomatic progress on Monday came just as his deadline was about to expire on an ultimatum threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless it reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had counterthreatened to strike power, water, and oil infrastructure across the Gulf region. Trump subsequently extended the deadline by five days, claiming a deal could be reached this week – a move that brought immediate relief to global oil and stock markets.

Analysts are divided on Trump’s motivations. The Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank, suggested he could be “actively seeking an offramp” due to concerns about long-term economic damage from the conflict. Alternatively, Trump may be buying time for military reinforcements to arrive, possibly preparing for operations to seize Iran’s strategically crucial Kharg Island oil terminal or to remove enriched uranium from the country.

Nuclear issues remain central to any potential negotiations. Trump has insisted that any deal will include removing Iran’s enriched uranium, a demand Iran has consistently rejected, maintaining its right to uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes. A more limited agreement focusing on a ceasefire and reopening shipping lanes may be more achievable, though Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi recently rejected partial measures, telling Al Jazeera: “We don’t believe in ceasefire. We believe in the end of war… the end of war in all fronts.”

Israel’s position adds another layer of complexity. While Netanyahu acknowledged Trump’s diplomatic efforts in a statement Monday, he indicated Israel would continue military operations for now. Even if the U.S.-Iran conflict winds down, Israel appears determined to press its advantage against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where it has intensified bombing after the group fired rockets in support of Iran.

As military deployments increase and diplomatic signals remain mixed, the pathway to peace remains highly uncertain.