Starlink in the crosshairs: How Russia could attack Elon Musk’s conquering of space

Intelligence sources from two NATO countries have revealed that Russia is allegedly developing a new anti-satellite weapon designed to target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation, according to confidential findings reviewed by The Associated Press. The weapon would reportedly create destructive orbiting clouds of shrapnel aimed at diminishing Western space superiority that has provided crucial support to Ukraine during the ongoing conflict.

The intelligence documents describe a “zone-effect” weapon that would flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets. This approach could potentially disable multiple satellites simultaneously, though it risks causing catastrophic collateral damage to other orbiting systems used by countries worldwide, including Russia itself and its ally China.

Space security experts who haven’t seen the intelligence findings express skepticism about the weapon’s feasibility. Victoria Samson, a specialist at the Secure World Foundation, said, “I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t.” She emphasized that such a weapon would create indiscriminate destruction in space, affecting Russia’s own satellite infrastructure.

However, Brigadier General Christopher Horner, commander of the Canadian military’s Space Division, didn’t dismiss the possibility, especially in light of previous U.S. allegations regarding Russia’s pursuit of nuclear space-based weapons. “If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and that they’re willing to develop that and willing to go to that end, well it wouldn’t strike me as shocking that something just short of that, but equally damaging, is within their wheelhouse of development,” Horner stated.

The Kremlin has not responded to AP’s requests for comment on the matter. Previously, Russia has advocated for UN efforts to prevent orbital weapons deployment, and President Vladimir Putin has denied any intention of placing nuclear weapons in space.

Russia reportedly views Starlink as a significant threat. The constellation of low-Earth orbit satellites has been vital for Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion, now in its fourth year. Ukrainian forces rely on Starlink’s high-speed internet for battlefield communications, weapons targeting, and maintaining connectivity where Russian strikes have damaged infrastructure.

Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites supporting Ukraine’s military could be legitimate targets. Earlier this month, Russia announced the deployment of a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of hitting targets in low orbit.

Unlike Russia’s 2021 missile test that destroyed a single defunct satellite, the weapon under development would reportedly target multiple Starlink satellites simultaneously. The intelligence findings suggest the pellets might be released by yet-to-be-launched formations of small satellites.

The millimeter-sized pellets would allegedly be too small for detection by ground and space-based tracking systems, potentially allowing Russia to avoid direct attribution for any attack. “If satellites start winking out with damage, I guess you could put two and two together,” noted Clayton Swope, a space security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The intelligence documents don’t specify when Russia might deploy such a system or how far along the research has progressed. An official familiar with the findings indicated the system is in active development, though timing details are considered too sensitive to share publicly.

Space security experts point out that after an attack, the pellets and resulting debris would eventually fall toward Earth, potentially damaging other orbiting systems, including the International Space Station and China’s Tiangong space station, both operating at lower orbits than Starlink.

Some analysts suggest the weapon could function more as a deterrent than a practical tool. “It definitely feels like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of deterrence,” Swope said. Samson added that the drawbacks of such an indiscriminate weapon might ultimately dissuade Russia from pursuing it, noting, “They’ve invested a huge amount of time and money and human power into being a space power. I don’t know that they would be willing to give up that much.”

The potential development comes amid growing concerns about the militarization of space and highlights the increasingly complex security challenges in this domain, as nations seek advantages while balancing the risks of creating hazardous orbital environments that could harm their own interests.