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Trump Claims Talks with Iran Amid Leadership Uncertainty
“Nobody knows who to talk to,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday at the White House, describing what he portrayed as both chaos and opportunity within Iran’s leadership structure. “But we’re actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly.”
His remarks come as the U.S. claims engagement with a “top” Iranian figure, even as Tehran publicly denies such negotiations are taking place.
The question now extends beyond whether talks are happening to whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to deliver on agreements. Following strikes on senior Iranian leadership and growing internal fractures, Iran appears to be functioning less like a centralized theocracy and more like a wartime system run by overlapping power centers, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.
The IRGC: The Real Power Behind the State
Intelligence assessments and recent reporting consistently indicate that the IRGC has emerged as the dominant force in Iran’s political system.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, notes that the current situation is accelerating a long-standing trend. “No doubt both the 12-Day war and this current conflict have trimmed the commanding heights of the Islamic Republic’s political and military leadership,” he said. “But it has also expedited the trend lines inherent in Iranian politics, which is the dominance of the security forces and the ascendance of the IRGC.”
“Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker than ever before and more of a national security rump state than ever before,” Ben Taleblu added.
The Command Room: Supreme National Security Council
If the IRGC represents the power in Iran, the Supreme National Security Council appears to be the mechanism through which that power is exercised.
The Council serves as Iran’s top forum for coordinating military and foreign policy, bringing together senior IRGC commanders and government officials under the supreme leader’s authority. Established after the 1979 revolution, it has played a central role in managing major crises, from nuclear negotiations to wartime operations.
Iran recently appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former IRGC commander, as secretary of the council, reinforcing its central role in coordinating military and political decisions, according to Reuters.
A Middle Eastern official source with knowledge of the system described the current structure: “Right now, the power is in the hands of the IRGC. The Supreme National Security Council makes the decisions, of course, with the backing of the majority of IRGC commanders.”
Mojtabā Khamenei: The Supreme Leader in Name
Formally, Iran’s system centers on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, but his actual grip on power remains uncertain.
Khamenei inherited sweeping authority following his father’s death, but “lacks the automatic authority enjoyed by his father,” according to Middle Eastern officials. Moreover, he has not appeared publicly since taking power and has only issued written statements, raising questions about both his health and ability to govern after reportedly being injured in the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father and other senior Iranian leaders in February.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, suggested his role may currently be limited: “For the time being, since Mojtaba has been injured, it seems he’s a hologram and not holding power. However, if Mojtaba recovers, he will be involved in ruling Iran. He is not just a figurehead. But anyhow, for the time being, the control of Iran is in the hands of the revolutionary guards.”
Ghalibaf: The Man at the Center of Trump’s Claim
Trump’s statement that he is speaking to a “top person” has focused attention on Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current parliament speaker.
The White House is reportedly exploring Ghalibaf as a potential interlocutor and even a possible future leader, according to Axios. A former IRGC commander, Ghalibaf represents a hybrid figure inside the system, bridging military credentials with political authority.
Ghalibaf has been a prominent figure in Iranian politics for decades, having run for president four times since 2005. He was also one of the key security figures involved in the crackdown on student protests in July 1999.
According to reports, Ghalibaf is expected to meet U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Pakistan’s capital as early as the end of this week, though he has publicly denied engaging in talks with the United States.
Araqchi: The Diplomat Carrying Messages
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi remains one of Iran’s most visible figures internationally. If negotiations were to take place, Araqchi would likely be part of the Iranian delegation alongside Ghalibaf, according to Reuters.
Analysts caution, however, that his role is limited. While he may act as a channel for communication, he does not independently set policy. Strategic decisions, particularly regarding war and negotiations, are still shaped by the IRGC and the broader security establishment.
The Wider Power Circle: Generals, Clerics and Enforcers
Beyond these key figures, a broader group of officials continues to shape Iran’s direction. These include IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and senior clerical and political figures such as Saeed Jalili and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.
Each represents a different pillar of the Iranian system: military power, regional proxy operations, control of strategic waterways, internal repression, and religious legitimacy. Together, they form what analysts describe as a fragmented but resilient governing network.
Despite internal divisions, Iran’s leadership remains united on one core objective: survival of the regime. As Kuperwasser noted: “There are the more pragmatic elites, like Araghchi, Rouhani, and Zarif. There are also the hardliners who have usually held the upper hand… But they are united in one issue — that the regime should survive and stay in power.”
Iran’s U.N. mission did not respond to a request for comment.
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9 Comments
The uncertainty around Iran’s leadership and decision-making process is a significant obstacle. Without a clear, centralized authority, it will be difficult for the U.S. to engage in substantive negotiations. This dynamic underscores the complexity of the situation and the need for careful, nuanced diplomacy.
The uncertainty surrounding Iran’s leadership and decision-making structure adds an extra layer of complexity to potential negotiations with the U.S. Without a clear, centralized authority, it will be difficult for both sides to reach any substantive agreements.
The fragmentation of Iran’s leadership and the IRGC’s rise to power is an important development to follow. It will be critical for the U.S. to carefully assess the key power brokers and their respective agendas in order to navigate this complex landscape effectively.
Interesting to see the ongoing power dynamics within Iran’s leadership. It’s unclear who has the authority to make deals – the IRGC seems to be the dominant force, but the wider power structure appears fragmented. Curious to see how this plays out in potential negotiations with the U.S.
The IRGC’s growing dominance in Iran’s power structure is a worrying development. Their involvement could make negotiations with the U.S. even more complex, as the IRGC’s agenda and priorities may not align with those of other Iranian factions. This power struggle will be crucial to monitor.
Trump’s claims of talks with a ‘top’ Iranian official raise more questions than answers. With the IRGC wielding significant power, it’s unclear if any Iranian leader would have the authority to make binding commitments. This power vacuum could make productive negotiations very challenging.
The IRGC’s growing influence is concerning. As a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, their involvement will likely complicate any potential talks. Identifying the key power brokers in Iran’s complex political system is crucial for the U.S. to navigate this delicate situation effectively.
The IRGC’s increasing dominance in Iran’s political system is a concerning development. Their involvement will likely make negotiations with the U.S. even more complex, as their priorities and agenda may differ from other Iranian factions. This power dynamic will be crucial to monitor going forward.
The fragmentation of Iran’s leadership and the IRGC’s rise to power raises questions about who holds the real authority to make binding commitments. This power vacuum could make it very difficult for the U.S. to find the right counterparts to engage with in any potential negotiations.