Iran’s Declining Influence Raises Questions About Saudi Crown Prince’s Regional Ambitions

As Iran weakens, Saudi Arabia moves to fill Middle East power vacuum by recalibrating regional relationships and pursuing a more independent foreign policy, according to regional experts.

The kingdom’s strategic repositioning comes amid shifting regional dynamics that have seen Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) consolidate power while implementing a vision markedly different from his predecessors. Saudi Arabia’s recent diplomatic maneuvers, from Yemen to Turkey, have sparked debate about whether the kingdom’s expanding regional role remains aligned with U.S. interests.

“Since Iran’s 1979 revolution, both Saudi Arabia and Iran have vied for influence across the broader Muslim world,” Javed Ali, former senior official at the National Security Council and professor at the University of Michigan, told Fox News Digital. “Mohammed bin Salman’s consolidation of power in the kingdom has also introduced a markedly different vision from that of his predecessors.”

In a sign of this strategic recalibration, Bloomberg reported in January that Turkey is seeking entry into the Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact signed four months earlier. This potential trilateral security arrangement would represent a significant realignment of regional powers.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that Saudi Arabia’s current trajectory stems from years of accumulated frustration with U.S. policy. “To be fair to MBS, previous U.S. administrations did not uphold their end of the bargain either,” Rubin said, pointing to repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi territory that went largely unaddressed during the Obama administration.

Tensions further intensified as MBS pursued reforms long urged by Washington, only to face criticism from U.S. policymakers. A particular turning point, according to Rubin, was the Biden administration’s decision to remove the Houthis’ terror designation. “By no objective measure should Secretary of State Antony Blinken have removed the terror designation from the Houthis,” he said, describing it as “pure spite directed at MBS and Donald Trump.”

This perceived lack of U.S. support pushed Saudi Arabia to develop alternatives. “MBS calculated that if the United States did not have his back, he would need to embrace a Plan B,” Rubin explained, characterizing Saudi outreach to Russia and China as tactical signaling rather than ideological realignment.

Saudi geopolitical researcher Salman Al-Ansari rejects claims that Riyadh is drifting ideologically or embracing Islamist movements. “Saudi Arabia does not base its foreign policy on ideological alignment, but on pragmatic considerations aimed at stability and development,” Al-Ansari told Fox News Digital. He described Saudi rapprochement with Turkey as part of a broader diplomatic effort “which seeks to transform the Middle East from a region of chronic conflict into one of greater stability.”

Al-Ansari emphasized that this strategic shift has already delivered results. “This shift has given Riyadh increased flexibility in engaging regional powers, a change Ankara quickly recognized and that has translated into expanding economic cooperation.”

He firmly rejected allegations of Saudi alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood. “Saudi Arabia designated the group as a terrorist organization in 2014, and this position remains unchanged,” he stated.

These competing interpretations of Saudi intent are most visibly colliding in Yemen, where the Saudi-Emirati alliance originally formed to counter Iran’s Houthi proxy. While both countries entered the conflict to roll back Iranian influence, their strategies have diverged significantly. Riyadh supports a unified Yemeni state under the internationally recognized government, arguing that fragmentation ultimately strengthens Iran. The UAE has instead backed southern separatists, including the Southern Transitional Council, prioritizing control over strategic ports and security corridors.

Recent developments highlight this growing rift. In the past few days, Saudi and Yemeni government forces have largely recaptured southern and eastern Yemen from the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council. The STC’s leader reportedly fled to the UAE amid the group’s reported dissolution, underscoring the sharp divide between the former allies.

Rubin warns that Saudi Arabia’s regional approach could have long-term consequences. “By ‘blowback’ I mean the same Islamists MBS cultivates today will end up targeting Saudi Arabia in the future,” he cautioned.

Al-Ansari counters that “differences with the UAE stem from its backing of separatist armed actors in Yemen, which complicates the political process, fragments the anti-Houthi front, and ultimately benefits the Iranian-backed Houthi militia.”

With Iran’s regional influence diminished and power dynamics shifting across the Middle East, U.S. policymakers now face a critical question: Will Saudi Arabia’s expanding regional role reinforce stability aligned with American interests, or is the kingdom redefining the balance of power in ways that challenge the longstanding partnership between Washington and Riyadh?

As this geopolitical recalibration continues, the implications extend beyond bilateral relations to shape the future security architecture of one of the world’s most volatile regions.