Iran’s Protest Movement Reaches Critical Juncture as Regime Faces Unprecedented Challenge

As protests continue to sweep across Iran with authorities responding with lethal force, a pivotal question emerges: Is the Islamic Republic facing its greatest threat since the 1979 revolution, or does the regime retain enough power to weather this storm?

For Mehdi Ghadimi, an Iranian journalist who spent decades protesting before being forced to flee, this moment represents a fundamental shift in Iran’s political landscape.

“From 1999, when I was about 15, until 2024, when I was forced to leave Iran, I took part in every street protest against the Islamic Republic,” Ghadimi told Fox News Digital. After supporting reformist movements for years, Ghadimi and many others reached a conclusion: “We became certain that the Islamic Republic is not reformable, that changing its factions is a fiction.”

This realization has gradually permeated Iranian society, culminating in what Ghadimi describes as a transformative change in the current demonstrations.

“For the first time in the 47 years of struggle by the Iranian people against the Islamic Republic, the idea of returning to the period before January 1979 became the sole demand and the central point of unity among the people,” he explained. “We witnessed the most widespread presence of people from all cities and villages of Iran in the streets, on a scale unprecedented in any previous protests.”

The nature of protest chants reflects this shift. Rather than demanding economic relief or changes to dress codes, protesters are openly calling for the fall of the Islamic Republic and expressing support for the return of the Pahlavi dynasty.

“At that point, it no longer seemed that we were merely protesting,” Ghadimi said. “We were, in fact, carrying out a revolution.”

Despite this revolutionary fervor, Ghadimi identifies what he sees as the main factor preventing regime collapse: “The government sets no limit for itself when it comes to killing its own people.”

He added that Tehran appears emboldened by the absence of international consequences. “It has also been reassured by the behavior of other countries that if it manages to survive, it will not be punished for these blatant crimes against humanity. The doors of diplomacy will always remain open to them, even if their hands are stained with blood.”

The regime has employed additional tactics to stifle opposition, including cutting off internet access to disrupt coordination between protesters and opposition leadership abroad. Once connectivity was severed, the reach of video messages from exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi dropped dramatically, according to Ghadimi.

While Iranian voices describe a revolutionary moment, security and policy experts caution that structural realities still favor the regime’s survival, despite unprecedented pressures.

Javed Ali, an associate professor at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, notes that Iran faces converging military, regional, economic and diplomatic challenges unlike any in recent memory.

“The IRGC is in a much weaker position following the 12-day war with Israel last summer,” Ali said, citing “leadership removals, ballistic missile and drone capabilities that were used or damaged, and an air and radar defense network that has been significantly degraded.”

Regionally, Iran’s deterrence has eroded sharply. “The so-called Axis of Resistance has been significantly weakened across the region,” Ali explained, pointing to setbacks suffered by Tehran’s proxies including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias throughout the Middle East.

Internally, demographic pressure intensifies the challenge. “Iran’s younger population is even more frustrated than before with deteriorating economic conditions, ongoing social and cultural restrictions and repeated violent crackdowns on dissent,” Ali said.

External dynamics are also limiting Tehran’s room to maneuver, including what Ali describes as a stronger U.S.-Israel relationship tied to the Netanyahu-Trump alliance. He suggested there might be “possible joint operations already underway to support the protest movement inside Iran.”

Israeli security sources, speaking on background, dismissed this notion, saying Israel has no interest in intervening in ways that would allow Tehran to redirect domestic unrest outward.

“Everyone understands it is better to sit and wait quietly and not attract the fire toward Israel,” one source said. “The regime would like to make this about Israel and the Zionist enemy and start another war to repress internal protests.”

The source added that a collapse of the Islamic Republic would have far-reaching regional implications: “If the regime falls, it will affect the entire Middle East. It could open a new era.”

Ali noted Iran’s increasing diplomatic isolation, citing “growing isolation from Gulf monarchies, the fall of Assad in Syria and only muted support from China and Russia.”

Despite these pressures, Ali cautions that Iran’s coercive institutions—particularly the Revolutionary Guard and intelligence apparatus—remain loyal to the regime “out of a mix of ideology, religion, and self-interest,” citing “power, money and influence.”

Ali places the probability of an internal regime collapse at “25% or less,” calling it “possible, but far less probable.”

Iran appears caught between two realities: a population increasingly unified around rejecting the Islamic Republic and a security apparatus still willing to use overwhelming force to preserve it. As Ali noted, pressure alone doesn’t bring regimes down—the decisive moment comes when those ordered to enforce repression decide it’s no longer in their interest to do so.

Ghadimi concluded with a message he heard repeatedly across Iran before his departure: “We have nothing left to lose, and even at the cost of our lives, we will not retreat one step from our demand for the fall of the Islamic Republic.”

“That spirit is what still gives my heart hope for victory,” he said. “But my mind tells me that when mass killing carries no punishment, and when the government possesses enough bullets, guns and determination to suppress it, even if it means killing millions, then victory would require a miracle.”