Bhumjaithai Party’s election victory signals shift in Thailand’s politics

Thailand’s Conservative Party Secures Historic Election Victory, Signaling Political Shift

Thailand’s political landscape underwent a significant transformation on Sunday as the conservative Bhumjaithai Party secured a decisive election victory, positioning it to form the next government under incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. The results signal voters’ preference for stability over the progressive reforms championed by opposition parties.

With 193 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, Bhumjaithai’s triumph represents what Ken Lohatepanont, a University of Michigan doctoral candidate, called “a seismic shift in Thai politics” and “the first time in the 21st century that a conservative party has won the most seats in a general election.”

This outcome disrupts two decades of electoral politics dominated by populist parties loyal to billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, who served as prime minister until his 2006 ouster by military coup, which triggered a prolonged power struggle between populist forces and Thailand’s conservative royalist-military establishment.

Despite its strong showing, Bhumjaithai will need coalition partners to reach the 251 House votes required to elect the prime minister. The progressive People’s Party, which secured 118 seats, has ruled out joining a Bhumjaithai-led government, while the populist Pheu Thai Party, which finished third with 74 seats, has left the possibility open.

“In the short term, the signs point toward continuity, consolidation, and a relatively smooth transition into government—much to the bitterness of reformist and progressive forces,” said Napon Jatusripitak, director of the Center for Politics and Geopolitics at Thailand Future, a Bangkok-based think tank.

Analysts attribute Bhumjaithai’s surge to several key factors. The party successfully positioned itself as a “defender of the nation” during border conflicts with Cambodia last year, capitalizing on rising nationalist sentiment. Purawich Watanasukh, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Thammasat University, noted that this patriotic stance strongly resonated with voters.

Additionally, Bhumjaithai forged strategic alliances with regional power brokers who have long-established networks for voter mobilization in rural villages, traditionally a backbone of Thai electoral politics. The party also expanded beyond its rural base by appointing accomplished technocrats to Anutin’s government, making it more appealing to middle-class voters.

The People’s Party, successor to the dissolved Move Forward Party that won the most seats in 2023, faced an unexpected setback. While it swept all 33 seats in Bangkok and topped the party preference ballot, its reform agenda—particularly regarding the military’s role in politics—appeared out of step with the nationalist mood following the Cambodia border dispute.

The party now faces the same challenges that brought down its predecessor. On Monday, the National Anti-Corruption Commission ruled that 44 former Move Forward lawmakers, including current People’s Party executives and its leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, committed ethical violations by attempting to amend Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté law, which criminalizes defamation of the monarchy. This ruling could lead to political bans if upheld by the Supreme Court.

For Pheu Thai, long a dominant force in Thai politics, the election delivered its worst performance in decades. The party even lost ground in its traditional stronghold of Chiang Mai, hometown of its patron Thaksin Shinawatra. Political analyst Kevin Hewison suggests joining a coalition with Bhumjaithai may be Pheu Thai’s “only political lifeline.”

Pheu Thai’s decline stems from several missteps. In 2023, it alienated pro-democracy supporters by breaking campaign promises and forming a government with pro-military parties. Later, then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter, angered conservatives when a leaked phone call revealed friendly exchanges with Cambodia’s leader Hun Sen during the border tensions. She was subsequently removed from office for an ethics violation, creating the opening for Anutin to assume the premiership.

As Thailand enters this new political chapter, Bhumjaithai’s victory represents a conservative resurgence in a nation that has experienced significant political turbulence over the past two decades. The coming weeks will reveal whether the party can successfully form a stable coalition and navigate Thailand’s complex political landscape.