Russia Spreads Fabricated ISW Report About French Nuclear Weapons, Promotes AI-Generated Hoaxes on Ukraine, Watchdog Reports

Russian propaganda has circulated a fabricated report falsely attributed to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), claiming that only 30% of France’s nuclear forces are operational, according to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD).

The CCD emphatically stated that the ISW has published no such assessment. This fabrication is particularly notable because the institute does not conduct technical analyses or audits of NATO countries’ nuclear arsenals, making the attribution immediately suspicious to experts.

“The fake is built on a typical Kremlin pattern. A fabricated message, attributed to a respected Western institution, is used to discredit France, its defense capabilities, and President Emmanuel Macron — and to create an illusion of ‘NATO weakness,'” the center explained in its report.

Intelligence analysts emphasize that this disinformation effort follows a familiar Russian playbook, designed to erode trust in European institutions and Ukraine’s allies. The ultimate objective appears to be sowing doubt about Western resolve and capability to counter Russian aggression.

This incident is part of a broader pattern of sophisticated Russian disinformation campaigns targeting NATO countries. By questioning France’s nuclear deterrent – a cornerstone of European security – Moscow aims to create perception gaps between alliance members and undermine collective security arrangements.

France maintains one of only three nuclear arsenals in NATO, alongside the United States and United Kingdom. The French nuclear deterrent, known as the Force de Frappe, is a key component of European defense strategy and symbolizes France’s independent military posture within the alliance.

The CCD also noted that Russian propaganda operations increasingly leverage artificial intelligence to create and disseminate false information. In a previous operation, the center documented widespread AI-generated fake reports about the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk, a strategically important location in the ongoing conflict.

According to CCD head Andrii Kovalenko, Russian propagandists had been specifically tasked with spreading false narratives claiming that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was absent from Kupyansk and that Russian forces controlled the city – neither of which was true.

The sophistication of these operations has advanced considerably, with fake videos featuring AI-generated “Ukrainian soldiers” appearing on major social media platforms, including TikTok. These manipulated clips promote Kremlin narratives about “collapsed defenses,” “chaos in the ranks,” and “an indifferent command” within Ukrainian forces.

Media experts point out that such disinformation campaigns have evolved beyond simple text-based falsehoods to include increasingly convincing synthetic media. The fabricated ISW report represents a more traditional approach, relying on the credibility of an established research institution to lend authority to false claims.

The ISW, a U.S.-based think tank that provides detailed analysis of conflicts worldwide, has become a trusted source of information during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By impersonating the institute, Russian operatives attempt to exploit its reputation to legitimize disinformation.

Security analysts note that targeting France’s nuclear capability comes at a sensitive time, as European nations reassess their defense postures amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and shifting geopolitical dynamics. France has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine and has provided significant military aid to Kyiv.

As disinformation techniques continue to evolve, verification centers like Ukraine’s CCD play an increasingly crucial role in identifying and debunking false narratives before they gain traction in mainstream discourse and potentially influence policy decisions.