What to watch as the midterms begin with Tuesday’s primaries

As the 2024 midterm election season officially kicks off Tuesday, voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas will provide the first concrete evidence of political sentiment as President Donald Trump approaches the halfway mark of his second term. The primary results will offer early clues about voter preferences in a highly polarized political landscape.

Republicans continue to frame Trump’s most recent election as a mandate for their agenda, while Democrats point to recent victories as evidence of potential political momentum heading into November. The primary season, stretching through September, will set the stage for the general election that will determine control of Congress and statehouses nationwide.

Several key dynamics are emerging as the primaries begin. In Texas, Trump’s endorsement—or lack thereof—is creating notable tension within Republican ranks. Despite endorsing more than 200 candidates nationwide for congressional and state-level executive offices, Trump has conspicuously withheld his backing from several high-profile Texas Republicans.

Senator John Cornyn faces challenges from state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Representative Wesley Hunt, with the latter two emphasizing their loyalty to Trump despite not receiving his formal endorsement. Similarly, Representative Dan Crenshaw, who has broken with Trump loyalists on issues like Ukraine aid and election fraud claims, faces a primary challenge from state Representative Steve Toth. Both candidates are trading accusations about the other’s conservative credentials.

While incumbents like Cornyn and Crenshaw maintain significant fundraising advantages, political analysts question whether financial resources alone can insulate them in an environment where Trump’s blessing carries substantial weight among Republican primary voters.

For Democrats, the Texas Senate primary highlights the party’s internal debate about how to counter Trump’s influence. Representative Jasmine Crockett has positioned herself as a fighter who “drives the president crazy,” embracing confrontational tactics against Republicans. Her approach stands in stark contrast to state Representative James Talarico, a former middle school teacher pursuing a divinity degree, who advocates for “a return to more timeless values of sincerity and honesty and compassion and respect.”

This stylistic difference reflects broader questions about Democratic strategy in a state the party has long hoped to turn from reliably red to competitive purple. Trump’s declining popularity has given Democrats renewed optimism about their prospects in Texas, though the right candidate and approach remain subjects of internal debate.

Generational divides are also emerging within Democratic primaries. In Texas, 37-year-old Representative Christian Menefee is challenging 78-year-old Representative Al Green after redistricting combined parts of their districts. Menefee, who recently won a special election, is attempting to unseat Green, an 11-term incumbent. The crypto-backed super PAC Protect Progress is supporting Menefee with advertisements urging Democrats to “pass the torch” to a younger generation.

Similar dynamics are playing out in North Carolina, where 32-year-old progressive Nida Allam is challenging 69-year-old Representative Valerie Foushee in a rematch of their 2022 primary. Allam, backed by Senator Bernie Sanders and Justice Democrats, is campaigning on a message of building a “brighter future.”

North Carolina also illustrates how redistricting can fundamentally alter the electoral landscape. The state has used different congressional district maps in every election since 2020, with the latest Republican-drawn version creating mostly safe red or blue districts. The 1st Congressional District is the sole exception, leaning right but potentially competitive for Democrats.

The lack of competitive districts means most races will effectively be decided in primaries rather than general elections, potentially contributing to voter apathy. Despite being a closely divided state in presidential elections, North Carolina has seen lower turnout in midterms, with campaign spending heavily concentrated in the few competitive districts.

As the primary season unfolds, political observers will be watching closely to see how these dynamics—Trump’s influence, Democratic messaging, generational change, and redistricting effects—shape the electoral landscape heading toward November’s decisive contests.