US and Israel Claim “Complete Control” of Iranian Airspace as Conflict Intensifies

One week into the war with Iran, U.S. officials report American and Israeli forces are moving toward “complete control” of Iranian airspace, creating conditions for deeper strikes and expanded military operations as the conflict shows signs of widening rather than de-escalating.

In recent briefings, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine described near-uncontested airspace over key corridors, enabling sustained bombing operations deep within Iranian territory. “We are winning with an overwhelming and unrelenting focus on our objectives,” Hegseth stated during Tuesday’s press briefing.

According to Caine, U.S. forces have struck more than 5,000 targets in the first 10 days of operations, including dozens of deeply buried missile launchers hit with 2,000-pound penetrating bombs. These actions demonstrate overwhelming military advantage, according to Washington.

However, the broader indicators—rising oil prices, expanding drone warfare, strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure, and regional spillover affecting NATO territory—suggest a conflict growing in scope despite official confidence in its trajectory.

Leadership Change in Tehran Signals Continuity

Amid the intensifying conflict, Iran’s Assembly of Experts has selected Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the recently deceased Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader. This selection, only the second leadership transition since the 1979 revolution, signals continuity rather than recalibration in Iran’s posture.

Mojtaba Khamenei, long viewed as a potential successor, is closely aligned with hard-line factions inside Iran’s security apparatus. President Donald Trump criticized the selection, suggesting it reflects the same entrenched power structure Washington has sought to weaken, and confirming that military operations will continue regardless of leadership changes in Tehran.

Rather than opening a diplomatic channel, the transition appears to reinforce the likelihood of a prolonged confrontation.

Military Dominance and Shifting Tactics

Hegseth claimed Tuesday that the U.S. and Israel had achieved “total air dominance” over Iran and were “winning decisively with brutal efficiency.” He acknowledged that Iran still maintains some ability to launch attacks but characterized their capability as significantly degraded.

“Most of their higher-end surface-to-air missile systems are not factors at this point in time,” Caine added, noting that fighter aircraft are now operating “deeper with relative impunity,” though he acknowledged some residual risk remains.

Admiral Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, reported that Iranian ballistic missile launches have dropped by approximately 90% from the opening days of the conflict, while drone attacks have fallen by more than 80%. He attributed this decline to sustained strikes on launchers and infrastructure.

The campaign is shifting from expensive standoff weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles to 500-, 1,000-, and 2,000-pound precision gravity bombs—a transition Hegseth said reflects confidence that Iranian air defenses have been suppressed. He described the U.S. stockpile of such bombs as “nearly unlimited” and warned that Washington’s timeline “is ours and ours alone to control.”

Drones Reshape the Battlefield

Despite declining missile launches, unmanned aerial systems remain central to the conflict. Iran continues to rely heavily on drones—including Shahed-style loitering munitions—to strike energy facilities, pressure U.S. bases, and disrupt shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. Compared to ballistic missiles, these platforms are cheaper and easier to deploy in volume, allowing Tehran to sustain pressure despite losses.

The United States has deployed counter-drone interceptor systems to the region, with Ukrainian specialists providing assistance based on their experience defending against Iranian-designed drones used in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Global Energy Markets Under Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and major liquefied natural gas shipments transit, has emerged as a critical flashpoint. Drone attacks and Iranian threats have sharply reduced commercial traffic, driving up insurance costs and forcing vessels to reroute. Oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel amid fears of persistent disruptions.

Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities, coupled with Iran’s retaliatory targeting of regional energy infrastructure, indicate energy assets have become active targets. Reports of strikes affecting water and desalination plants suggest the war is expanding beyond strictly military objectives.

Trump warned Monday that Iran will be hit “20 times harder” if it continues to threaten ships in the Strait.

Regional and NATO Implications

The conflict has edged closer to NATO territory, with two Iranian ballistic missiles intercepted near Turkish airspace. Iran has also struck Azerbaijan, drawing sharp condemnation from Baku and angering Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest ally.

Notably, Iran has failed to rally a unified regional bloc in its defense, highlighting its relative diplomatic isolation even as it escalates militarily.

Rising Human Cost

The Pentagon has confirmed seven U.S. service members killed and eight seriously injured in Iranian strikes. The U.S. claims over 50 top Iranian leaders have been eliminated, while Iran reports more than 1,000 people killed in strikes, including approximately 175 people—many of them schoolchildren—in an attack on a girls’ elementary school in Minab, though no group has claimed responsibility for this incident.

As the conflict enters its second week, the trajectory points toward expansion rather than containment. U.S. officials project confidence in their air dominance and sustained strike capacity, while Iran’s leadership has consolidated under a hard-line successor. With energy markets volatile, drone warfare continuing, and the conflict touching NATO territory, the central question remains how far the conflict will spread, and whether military momentum can outpace the mounting economic and geopolitical costs across the region.