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China’s Population Continues to Shrink Despite Government Efforts to Boost Births
China’s population declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, dropping by 3 million to 1.404 billion, according to government statistics released Monday. The birth rate fell to its lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, with just 7.92 million babies born – a 17% decrease from the previous year.
This persistent demographic decline comes despite a decade of government efforts to reverse the trend after ending the controversial one-child policy, which limited most families to a single offspring for generations.
Chinese authorities have implemented a range of measures to encourage more births, including cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child, removing taxes from matchmaking services, day care centers and kindergartens, and even adding a 13% tax on condoms that took effect January 1.
“It’s these big structural issues which are much harder to tackle, whether it’s housing, work, getting a job and getting started in life, or expectations around education,” explained Stuart Gietel-Basten, director of the Center for Aging Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “It’s going to be difficult to make a major change in those number of births until those are addressed.”
Most Chinese families cite the high costs and intense pressure of raising children in China’s competitive society as significant barriers to having more offspring. These challenges have been compounded by an economic slowdown that has left many households struggling to meet basic living expenses.
Another cultural factor may have influenced the particularly sharp decline in 2025: it was the Year of the Snake in the Chinese zodiac, traditionally considered one of the least favorable years for childbirth. Although state news agency Xinhua tried to promote the idea that the snake “is shaking off its negative connotations,” the superstition appears to have persisted.
China’s fertility rate – the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime – is estimated to have fallen to around 1, far below the 2.1 needed to maintain population size. This places China among many Asian nations facing similar demographic challenges.
The country’s demographic shift carries significant economic implications. China now has 323 million people over 60, representing 23% of the population. This aging trend, combined with a shrinking workforce, creates pressure on the pension system and threatens economic growth as fewer workers support more retirees.
“The bigger concern is whether economic growth can stay afloat with a shrinking population,” said Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis.
This demographic challenge comes at a pivotal time for China’s economy, which is attempting to transition from labor-intensive manufacturing toward a consumer-driven model built on high-tech industries. While China reported 5% economic growth for 2025, analysts expect the pace to slow in coming years.
China lost its status as the world’s most populous nation to India in 2023, marking a significant shift in the global demographic landscape. To address these challenges, experts suggest China will eventually need to reform its pension system and broaden its tax base to accommodate higher government expenditure.
Researchers like Gietel-Basten emphasize that meaningful change requires workplace policies ensuring women aren’t penalized for taking time off to have children. “It shouldn’t be this massive penalty,” he noted.
The path forward remains uncertain as China grapples with reversing deeply entrenched social norms established during decades of strict population control. After generations of families limited to just one child, convincing the population to embrace larger families presents a formidable challenge that goes beyond financial incentives and tax policies.
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7 Comments
This is a significant development that could have far-reaching implications for China’s economy and geopolitical influence. The government’s efforts to boost births have clearly fallen short, and it may need to rethink its overall population and family planning policies to address the underlying drivers of this trend.
China’s population decline raises some important questions about the sustainability of its economic growth model, which has relied heavily on a large workforce. As the population ages, the government will need to find new ways to boost productivity and innovation to maintain its global competitiveness.
The drop in births to the lowest level since the communist revolution is a stark reminder of the profound social and economic changes underway in China. While the government’s efforts to boost births are commendable, it’s clear that deeper, more structural changes may be needed to address this challenge effectively.
The drop in births to the lowest level since the communist revolution is quite remarkable. It shows how quickly social and economic changes can impact demographic trends, even in a highly controlled society like China. This will have significant implications for the country’s economy and development going forward.
This data on China’s falling birth rate is quite alarming. It suggests that the country’s long-term economic and social stability could be under threat. The government will need to act decisively to address the root causes and reverse this demographic decline.
Interesting to see China’s population continuing to decline despite government efforts. Clearly the factors driving lower birth rates are deep-seated and not easily reversed. Curious to see how the government will adapt its policies to address this long-term demographic shift.
The article highlights the challenges China faces in reversing its falling birth rate, despite various incentives. This seems to be a global trend, with many developed economies struggling with declining populations. It will be interesting to see how China responds to this long-term demographic shift.