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U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments about discussing potential arms sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping have sparked concern among foreign policy experts, who warn the approach may undermine decades of established diplomatic principles.
Speaking to journalists on Monday, Trump said he was discussing Taiwan arms sales with Xi, noting, “I’m talking to him about it. We had a good conversation, and we’ll make a determination pretty soon.” Trump added that he maintains “a very good relationship with President Xi.”
The remarks have raised eyebrows because they appear to contradict one of the fundamental tenets of U.S.-Taiwan relations known as the Six Assurances, a set of non-binding policy principles established in 1982 under President Ronald Reagan. The second of these assurances explicitly states that the U.S. “did not agree to consult with the People’s Republic of China on arms sales to Taiwan.”
William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group, warned that Trump may be creating a “dangerous precedent” by allowing Beijing to make demands regarding U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. “That principle has been executed by several U.S. presidents after Ronald Reagan to justify and continue the arms sales to Taiwan without actually discussing the topic with China over the past few decades,” Yang explained.
The government in Taipei, currently observing a weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, has not yet issued a response to Trump’s statements.
The tensions are deeply rooted in China’s territorial claims over Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. China routinely sends military aircraft and naval vessels near the island and prohibits countries with which it has diplomatic relations from maintaining formal ties with Taipei.
Despite not having official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the United States is the island’s most significant informal supporter and arms supplier. Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the U.S. is obligated to provide Taiwan with defensive capabilities sufficient to deter a potential Chinese attack.
In December, the Trump administration approved a record-breaking arms package to Taiwan worth more than $11 billion, drawing sharp criticism from Beijing. During a recent phone conversation with Trump, Xi reportedly warned that “the U.S. must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence” and emphasized that “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations.”
U.S. policy toward Taiwan rests on three key pillars, according to Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University. The first is the Taiwan Relations Act, which legally binds the U.S. to provide Taiwan with defensive capabilities. The second comprises the Three Communiqués issued jointly by the U.S. and Chinese governments in the 1970s and 1980s, wherein the U.S. acknowledges there is only one China without recognizing Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan. The third pillar is the Six Assurances, which have been upheld by all U.S. presidents since Reagan.
Hoo Tiang Boon, an associate professor of international relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, noted that Trump’s comments give the impression that China may have influence over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. “Even if eventually the U.S. will approve whatever arms sales packages to Taiwan, it is a disturbing development, particularly from the perspective of Taiwan because it sounds like it would be an issue that would be bargained away,” Hoo said.
Trump is scheduled to make his first trip to China in his current term in April. Analysts expect Taiwan to feature prominently during discussions with Xi, alongside other critical issues such as trade and access to advanced technologies.
The uncertainty around Trump’s position has the potential to amplify skepticism on the island about whether the U.S. would intervene in the event of a Chinese attack. “This further surge of skepticism and anxiety about the United States within Taiwan is exactly what China would be aiming for,” Yang added.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s government, led by independence-leaning President Lai Ching-te, faces domestic challenges in securing parliamentary approval for payment of existing U.S. arms packages. Opposition lawmakers have indicated they will review a $40 billion special defense budget when they reconvene after the holiday on February 23.
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8 Comments
While it’s positive that the U.S. is engaging with China on this issue, any changes to the long-standing policy on Taiwan arms sales would be highly concerning. The administration must proceed with extreme caution to avoid undermining regional security and stability.
This is a concerning development that could have major implications for stability in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. must remain firmly committed to the ‘One China’ policy and Taiwan’s security. Rash actions could provoke a dangerous escalation with China.
Agreed. Maintaining the status quo and existing diplomatic frameworks is critical. The U.S. will need to engage in very delicate diplomacy to address this issue without destabilizing the region.
Interesting development on the Taiwan arms sales issue. It will be important for the U.S. to balance its longstanding commitments to Taiwan with the need to manage relations with China. Careful diplomacy will be key.
Agreed. The U.S. needs to tread carefully to avoid undermining the ‘One China’ policy and Taiwan’s security. Clear communication and consistency in policy will be critical.
Trump’s comments seem to depart from longstanding U.S. policy on Taiwan. While dialogue with China is important, any changes to arms sales could significantly impact the regional balance of power. The administration will need to tread very carefully.
This is a complex geopolitical issue with high stakes. The U.S. has to carefully consider the implications of any changes to its approach on Taiwan arms sales. Maintaining stability in the region should be the top priority.
Absolutely. The U.S. has to weigh the potential benefits and risks very carefully. Consulting closely with allies and partners will be crucial in developing an effective strategy.