Oscar Predictions Heat Up with Late-Game Surprises

The Oscars just got more interesting. With a few late-game curveballs, courtesy of the Actor Awards, the broadcast of the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 15, may have more drama and heartbreak than expected even just last week.

As members of the film academy fill out their ballots before Thursday’s 8 p.m. Eastern deadline, Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle are making their final predictions for the top awards too.

In the best picture race, “One Battle After Another” was coasting along the rolling hills of awards season as the clear front-runner, winning top prizes at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, right up until Sunday’s Actor Awards. Suddenly, “Sinners,” which won best ensemble, emerged as a serious contender.

Despite this last-minute shakeup, both Bahr and Coyle still predict “One Battle After Another” will take home the top prize. As Bahr points out, the Actor Awards (previously known as SAG) has diverged from the Oscar winner five times in the past 10 shows, while the PGAs have been a slightly better predictor, diverging only twice in 10 years.

“Either way, it’ll be a win for theatrical moviegoing and Warner Bros., no matter how uncertain their futures may be,” Bahr notes.

In the acting categories, some races seem locked while others have become increasingly competitive. For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley is the clear frontrunner for her performance in “Hamnet.” Coyle calls this “the easiest call of the night,” noting that Buckley’s win would not only reward her excellent performance but also recognize “one of the most talented and natural actors of a generation.”

The Best Actor category, however, has become one of the most unpredictable races this season. Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) appeared to be the early favorite, but Michael B. Jordan’s heartfelt Actor Awards speech for “Sinners” may have tipped the scale in his direction.

“It will be an interesting case study in campaigning if Jordan ends up taking the statue, which I think he will,” predicts Bahr. Coyle adds that it’s been 22 years since we had a best actor winner who didn’t win at either the BAFTAs or with the actors guild, but believes Jordan will triumph, noting that “unlike others in this category, Jordan has really been under-honored. This is his first Oscar nomination.”

The supporting categories are similarly competitive. For Supporting Actress, three nominees have notable wins so far: Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) with the Actor Award, Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) at the BAFTAs, and Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) at the Globes. Coyle predicts Taylor will take home the Oscar, noting her “absurdly blistering” performance and the advantage of being part of what he expects to be the best picture winner.

In Supporting Actor, the race appears to be between Sean Penn, who has won at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards for “One Battle After Another,” and Delroy Lindo for “Sinners.” While Coyle believes Penn has the edge, a bigger question remains: Will Penn, who has skipped most ceremonies this season, even attend the Oscars?

For Best Director, both critics agree that Paul Thomas Anderson will finally win his first Oscar for “One Battle After Another.” Anderson, who has been nominated multiple times throughout his career without a win, took home the Directors Guild Award, often a reliable predictor of Oscar success.

In the documentary feature category, “The Perfect Neighbor” is expected to win, with Bahr noting that Geeta Gandbhir’s riveting film about Florida’s “stand your ground” laws benefited from wide exposure on Netflix. After several years of international documentaries winning, this might mark a return to recognition for films addressing American issues.

The International Feature race is particularly competitive this year, with critics split between “Sentimental Value” from Norway and “The Secret Agent” from Brazil. Both films received best picture nominations, but Bahr gives “The Secret Agent” the edge due to its additional recognition in the casting category.

Finally, in the animated feature category, both critics agree that the cultural phenomenon “KPop Demon Hunters” will triumph. “It’s not often this award actually goes to a movie that truly had an impact on the culture,” Bahr notes, while Coyle adds, “Any movie that sends hordes upon hordes of young girls into the streets dressed as K-pop-singing demon hunters deserves an Oscar.”

With balloting closing soon and several categories still seemingly up for grabs, this year’s Oscars ceremony promises to deliver genuine suspense and potentially some major surprises when the envelopes are opened on March 15.