What to know about the Central African Republic ahead of its election

Central African Republic Prepares for Presidential Elections Amid Security Concerns and Russian Influence

Central African Republic will hold presidential and legislative elections on December 28, with incumbent President Faustin Archange Touadera widely expected to secure a third term following a 2023 constitutional referendum that removed term limits.

The elections come at a critical juncture for the landlocked nation of 5.5 million people, which has struggled with armed conflict for years while increasingly relying on Russian security support. Touadera’s decision to seek another term sparked street protests earlier this year, adding to tensions in a country grappling with both internal security challenges and shifting international alliances.

Human Rights Watch has noted that recent peace agreements between the government and armed groups have created conditions for stability not seen in years. “Because of the peace deals, United Nations peacekeeping efforts, and security support from Wagner and from the Rwandans, the country is in a more secure place than it was during the last electoral cycle in 2020,” said Lewis Mudge, the rights group’s Central Africa director.

The UN peacekeeping mission MINUSCA, present since 2014 with approximately 14,000 military personnel and 3,000 police members, will provide security at polling stations. However, the UN Security Council recently extended the mission for one year while announcing a scale-down due to budget constraints. MINUSCA spokesperson Florence Marchal has insisted the reduction won’t compromise electoral security.

Central African Republic’s history of conflict traces back to 2013 when predominantly Muslim rebels seized power and forced the president from office. A 2019 peace agreement was signed, but six of the 14 armed groups later withdrew from the deal. The situation has gradually stabilized, though significant security challenges remain.

Russia’s changing military presence has created new complications. Central African Republic was one of the first African countries where the Wagner mercenary group established operations, promising to fight rebel groups and restore peace. In exchange for protecting Touadera and his government, Wagner gained access to the country’s valuable gold and other mineral resources.

However, tensions have emerged as Moscow reportedly seeks to replace Wagner with its Africa Corps military unit and has demanded cash payments for continued security services. Government officials, speaking anonymously, have expressed reluctance to agree to Russia’s demands, preferring Wagner’s operations and the mineral-based payment arrangement.

Rwanda has also established significant influence in the country. Beyond participating in the UN peacekeeping mission, Rwanda deployed 1,000 special forces following a 2021 rebel attack on the capital, Bangui. The two countries signed agreements that year granting Rwanda access to farmland and mining concessions in exchange for military support against armed groups.

“For Rwanda, the Central African Republic is seen as a potential backup to their mining interests in eastern Congo,” said Charles Bouëssel, a Central Africa analyst with the International Crisis Group. Rwanda’s involvement in the region has been controversial, with Congo, the U.S., and UN experts accusing it of supporting the M23 rebel group in eastern Congo – allegations Rwanda denies.

As the election approaches, concerns about electoral irregularities have mounted. Human Rights Watch has warned that the election’s credibility could be compromised by incomplete voter lists and inadequately trained polling staff, particularly outside the capital. The organization also documented administrative tactics that have disproportionately hindered opposition candidates.

While former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra were eventually cleared to run by the Constitutional Council on November 14, their late entry gives them limited time to campaign. Meanwhile, the main opposition coalition, the Republican Bloc for the Defense of the Constitution, announced in October it would boycott the election, denouncing what it called an unequal political environment.

Analysts predict these developments will likely pave the way for a Touadera victory and a parliament dominated by the governing party, further solidifying his power and potentially extending the country’s reliance on external security partners like Russia and Rwanda.