Treason trial of South Sudan’s suspended VP is further eroding peace deal, UN experts say

The treason trial of South Sudan’s suspended vice president Riek Machar is undermining the fragile 2018 peace agreement that ended years of bloody civil war, according to a new report by United Nations experts.

As Machar faces charges in the capital Juba, forces loyal to him and those supporting President Salva Kiir continue to clash across the country, raising fears of renewed major conflict in the world’s youngest nation.

UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix recently warned the Security Council that South Sudan’s crisis is rapidly escalating toward a “breaking point,” with time “dangerously short” to salvage the peace process that has kept relative stability since 2018.

The deterioration comes at a critical moment for South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011 amid high hopes for the oil-rich nation. Those aspirations were quickly dashed when the country plunged into civil war in December 2013, largely along ethnic lines between Kiir’s Dinka supporters and Machar’s Nuer backers. The conflict claimed more than 400,000 lives before the power-sharing agreement brought the two rivals together in a unity government.

“The political and security landscape in South Sudan looks very different today than it did in 2018,” the panel of UN experts noted in their report. They warned that “the conflict that now threatens looks much different to those that came before.”

Years of neglect have splintered both government and opposition forces, creating what the experts described as “a patchwork of uniformed soldiers, defectors and armed community defense groups” increasingly focused on local disputes rather than national politics. Many of these fragmented forces show little enthusiasm for large-scale conflict, yet violence continues to spread.

South Sudan’s military, facing supply shortages and low morale, has increasingly relied on “relatively indiscriminate” aerial bombardments to disrupt opposition groups, according to the experts’ findings.

Tensions escalated dramatically in March when a Nuer militia seized a government army garrison. Kiir’s administration responded by charging Machar and seven other opposition figures with treason, murder, terrorism and additional crimes – a move that many observers view as politically motivated.

Despite dismissing Machar, President Kiir and his allies maintain that the peace agreement remains intact, pointing to a splinter faction of Machar’s opposition led by Stephen Par Kuol that continues to engage with the government. Those who refused to join Kuol and instead sided with Nathaniel Oyet, Machar’s former deputy, “have largely been removed from their positions, forcing many to flee the country,” the UN experts reported.

Regional and international bodies have called for Machar’s release. The African Union, neighboring countries, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have all emphasized their support for fully implementing the 2018 agreement, viewing it as the only viable path to stability.

The political crisis comes amid a deteriorating humanitarian situation. The latest international assessment indicates that 7.7 million people – representing 57% of South Sudan’s population – face “crisis” levels of food insecurity. Some communities most affected by renewed fighting are experiencing pockets of famine, further complicating peace efforts.

South Sudan’s presidential election, originally scheduled much earlier, has been repeatedly delayed and is currently set for December 2026. However, the viability of that timeline increasingly comes into question as political tensions rise and implementation of key aspects of the peace deal stalls.

The continued detention and trial of Machar represents a significant setback for reconciliation efforts in a country still struggling to overcome deep ethnic divisions and establish functioning democratic institutions a decade after independence.