The ceasefire in the Iran war is fragile ahead of talks expected Saturday

Fragile Ceasefire in Iran-US Conflict Threatened by Regional Violence and Uncertainty

A tentative ceasefire between Iran and the United States appeared increasingly unstable Thursday as Israeli airstrikes pounded Beirut, Iran maintained its blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, and questions mounted over whether upcoming peace talks can bridge significant divides between the warring parties.

The fragile agreement, which both Iran and the U.S. quickly claimed as a victory, faces mounting pressure from multiple fronts. Iranian state-affiliated news agencies released charts suggesting the Revolutionary Guard has mined the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and natural gas trade previously flowed. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump issued stern warnings that U.S. forces would strike Iran with greater force if the agreement isn’t fulfilled.

Central to the ceasefire’s instability is disagreement over whether it includes a pause in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains the deal does not, vowing Israel will continue striking the Iran-backed militant group “with force, precision and determination.” Iran, however, insists the Israeli bombardment violates the ceasefire terms.

The consequences of this dispute turned deadly Wednesday when Israeli airstrikes hit central Beirut and other areas of Lebanon. Lebanon’s health ministry reported at least 203 people killed and more than 1,000 wounded in what became the deadliest day in the country since the war began on February 28. On Thursday, Israel announced it had killed Ali Yusuf Harshi, an aide to Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem.

The New York-based Soufan Center warned the ceasefire “hovers on the verge of collapse,” noting that “even if Lebanon was formally outside the deal, the scale of Israel’s strikes was likely to be viewed as escalatory.” Analysts suggest Israel’s actions may be intended to drive a wedge between Iran and its proxies or reflect frustration at being sidelined during initial ceasefire negotiations.

The planned peace talks, scheduled to begin Saturday in Islamabad, present another layer of uncertainty. U.S. Vice President JD Vance will lead the American delegation, while Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has been discussed as a potential negotiator for Tehran. Qalibaf warned Thursday that continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah would bring “explicit costs and STRONG responses.”

Global energy markets remain severely disrupted by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Around 230 oil-laden vessels currently wait for passage through the waterway, according to Sultan al-Jaber, head of the United Arab Emirates’ major oil company, who stressed they must be allowed “to navigate this corridor without condition.”

Iranian semiofficial media published a chart Thursday showing a “danger zone” marked in Farsi over the strait’s shipping lanes, suggesting the presence of naval mines. Ships have largely avoided the area since the war began after several vessels were attacked and Iran threatened to target any it deemed connected to the U.S. or Israel.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told the BBC that Iran will allow transit through the strait in accordance with “international norms and international law” once the United States ends its “aggression” in the Middle East and Israel halts attacks on Lebanon.

The strait’s effective closure has caused oil prices to surge approximately 35% since the conflict began, with Brent crude trading around $98 per barrel on Thursday. This dramatic increase has rippled through global economies, raising costs for gasoline, food, and other essentials worldwide. One contentious issue for upcoming negotiations is whether Iran will be permitted to implement a system charging ships for passage through the strait, upending decades of free transit through what has traditionally been treated as an international waterway.

Another critical point of contention involves Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. insists Iran must never be able to build nuclear weapons and wants to remove Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which was buried following last year’s U.S. and Israeli strikes. Trump stated Wednesday that the U.S. would work with Iran to remove the uranium, though Iran has not confirmed this arrangement.

Mohammad Eslami, chief of Iran’s nuclear agency, emphasized Thursday that protecting Tehran’s right to enrich uranium is “necessary” for any ceasefire negotiations. An Iranian version of the ceasefire deal indicates Tehran would retain enrichment rights, contradicting U.S. objectives in initiating the conflict.

As uncertainty persists, President Trump warned that U.S. military forces will remain positioned around Iran “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with,” underscoring the tenuous nature of the current arrangement.