Russia-Ukraine War Casualties Could Reach 2 Million, Report Warns

A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns that combined casualties in the Russia-Ukraine war could reach a staggering 2 million by spring 2026, marking a grim milestone in the conflict approaching its fourth anniversary.

According to the report released Tuesday, Russia has already suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties since the war began in February 2022, including an estimated 325,000 troop deaths. Ukraine’s losses are estimated between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties, with approximately 140,000 troop deaths. Current combined casualties may already be as high as 1.8 million.

“No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II,” the report states, highlighting the unprecedented scale of losses in a modern conflict.

Obtaining accurate casualty figures has proven challenging, as neither Moscow nor Kyiv regularly releases comprehensive data on military losses. According to The Associated Press, both sides simultaneously focus on amplifying each other’s casualties while downplaying their own. Russia has publicly acknowledged just over 6,000 soldier deaths, with independent observers noting that reports of military losses have been actively suppressed in Russian media.

The CSIS analysis indicates that Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities have been “significantly higher” than Ukraine’s, estimating a ratio of roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. The report attributes Russia’s disproportionate losses to several factors, including “failure to effectively conduct combined arms and joint warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, low morale and Ukraine’s effective defense-in-depth strategy in a war that favors the defense.”

Perhaps most telling is Russia’s conscious strategic choice to accept high casualties. “Russia’s attrition strategy has accepted the costs of high casualties in hopes of eventually wearing down Ukraine’s military and society,” the report explains, suggesting Moscow has prioritized gradual territorial gains over troop preservation.

Despite these enormous human costs, Russian advances have been remarkably slow. Since seizing military initiative in January 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average of just 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in its most prominent offensives. The CSIS researchers note this pace is “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.”

“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report concludes.

The grim assessment comes as the war continues with no clear end in sight. On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials reported two people killed during Russian strikes on an apartment block near Kyiv, with at least nine others injured in separate attacks on Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.

However, there have been some diplomatic developments. Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States recently met in the United Arab Emirates for the first trilateral talks since 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described these conversations as “constructive” in a social media post.

“As a result of the meetings held over these days, all sides agreed to report back in their capitals on each aspect of the negotiations and to coordinate further steps with their leaders,” Zelenskyy wrote, noting that delegations could meet again as early as next week.

These diplomatic efforts come at a critical juncture as the war approaches its fourth anniversary in February. Despite multiple international mediation attempts, including by the United States, the conflict has persisted with mounting casualties on both sides and continued destruction of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

Military analysts suggest the staggering casualty figures highlight not only the brutality of the conflict but also raise questions about both countries’ ability to sustain these losses over a prolonged period, particularly as Russia faces international sanctions and Ukraine depends heavily on Western military and financial support.