Russia can’t attack NATO this year but plans to boost its own forces, an intelligence chief says

Russia Preparing for Major Military Buildup Near NATO Border, Estonian Intelligence Chief Warns

Russia is planning a significant increase of its military forces along NATO’s eastern flank, though it currently lacks the resources to launch an attack on the alliance, Estonia’s intelligence chief revealed this week.

Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, told journalists in an online briefing that while Russia cannot mount an offensive against NATO this year or next, the Kremlin intends to multiply its pre-war military presence along the border by two to three times.

“The scale of this buildup will be heavily influenced by how the Ukraine conflict resolves,” Rosin explained. “Russia will need to maintain a significant portion of its military inside occupied Ukrainian territory and within Russia itself to prevent future Ukrainian action.”

The assessment comes as U.S.-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine have shown little substantive progress despite being described as “constructive” by officials from both sides. According to intelligence gathered from what Rosin called “Russian internal discussions,” Moscow views these negotiations opportunistically rather than as a genuine path to peace.

“Putin, in his head, still thinks that he can actually militarily win in Ukraine at some point,” Rosin said. “Russian officials are playing for time in the talks with Washington, and there is absolutely no discussion about how to really cooperate with the U.S. in a meaningful way.”

This analysis contradicts the narrative coming from the White House, where officials maintain that Trump administration negotiators have made “tremendous progress” in peace efforts. They point to a recent prisoner exchange agreement reached in Abu Dhabi that will release over 300 prisoners as evidence of advancement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently indicated that Washington has set a June deadline for reaching a settlement, though previous Trump administration deadlines have passed without apparent consequences.

Fiona Hill, a Russia expert who advised Trump during his first term, told the Associated Press that both Trump and Putin “need their version of events to play out” – Putin as the victor in Ukraine and Trump as the dealmaker. This dynamic may be clouding realistic assessments of the situation.

While diplomatic talks continue, the violence in Ukraine shows no signs of abating. On Tuesday, Russian aircraft dropped seven powerful glide bombs on Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, killing an 11-year-old girl and her mother while injuring 16 others, including a 7-year-old. Overnight drone attacks elsewhere in Ukraine wounded at least five people, including three children.

The Estonian intelligence assessment provides rare insight into Putin’s mindset regarding the conflict. According to Rosin, Putin remains fixated on controlling all of Ukraine – a goal that takes priority over everything else, including Russia’s economic wellbeing. This suggests the conflict will likely continue in some form for several years.

“His position may change only if the situation in Russia, or on the front line, becomes catastrophic enough to threaten his power,” Rosin noted. “For now, the Kremlin leader still believes he can take Ukraine and outsmart everybody.”

Part of this confidence stems from information filtration within the Russian government. Rosin explained that Putin likely receives overly optimistic reports that don’t accurately reflect battlefield realities. Lower-level officials better understand “how bad it is actually on the ground,” while higher-ranking ones tend to present more positive assessments.

“The reports that arrive at Putin’s desk may be much more optimistic than the situation on the ground because Putin only wants to see success,” Rosin said, citing examples where officials falsely claimed Russian forces had captured Ukrainian settlements.

Hill observed that both Trump and Putin are probably receiving information filtered to match their preferred narratives, potentially hampering realistic decision-making on both sides.

As the conflict approaches its fourth year with no resolution in sight, the potential for increased Russian military presence along NATO borders adds another concerning dimension to Europe’s security landscape.