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Myanmar’s Military-Backed Election Begins Sunday Amid Civil War and International Skepticism
Myanmar will hold the first phase of a controversial general election on Sunday, its first vote since the military seized power in a 2021 coup that overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
The military has framed the polls as a return to multi-party democracy, but critics argue the election is designed merely to provide a veneer of legitimacy to the junta’s continued rule. Human rights organizations and opposition groups have condemned the process, saying it will neither restore democracy nor end the devastating civil war that has raged across the country since the takeover.
“These elections are not credible at all,” said Richard Horsey, a Myanmar analyst for the International Crisis Group. “They do not include any of the political parties that did well in the last election or the election before.”
The vote will be conducted in three phases due to ongoing conflict, with the initial round covering 102 of Myanmar’s 330 townships. Subsequent voting will take place on January 11 and January 25. Notably, 65 townships will not participate at all because of heavy fighting between the military and resistance forces.
Military authorities claim the 2020 election, which Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won by a landslide, was marred by voter registration irregularities—allegations independent observers found no evidence to support. The military used these claims to justify seizing power on February 1, 2021.
Suu Kyi, now 80, will not participate in this election as she serves a 27-year prison sentence on charges widely viewed as politically motivated. Her party was officially dissolved after refusing to register under new military-imposed regulations.
Analysts believe the military’s strategy is for its proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), to win convincingly, allowing Myanmar to transition from direct military rule to a government with a “civilian facade” that maintains army control. This outcome would enable the junta to claim compliance with peace proposals from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) while providing regional powers like China, India, and Thailand justification to continue their engagement with Myanmar’s government.
While 57 parties have registered candidates, most are fielding representatives only in limited regions. Six parties are competing nationwide, but electoral rules strongly favor the military-backed USDP. Nearly 5,000 candidates are vying for over 1,100 seats across national and regional legislatures, though many constituencies will not vote due to security concerns.
The election takes place against a backdrop of severe repression. A new Election Protection Law effectively criminalizes criticism of the polls, with over 200 people charged in recent months for activities as simple as distributing leaflets or posting critical content online.
“Myanmar is witnessing intensified violence, repression, and intimidation ahead of military-controlled elections,” the UN Human Rights Office reported, noting that civilians face threats from both military authorities and armed opposition groups regarding their participation.
The human cost of Myanmar’s ongoing conflict has been staggering. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, more than 22,000 people are currently detained for political offenses, and security forces have killed over 7,600 civilians since the coup. The fighting has displaced more than 3.6 million people internally, creating a major humanitarian crisis.
Amael Vier, an analyst for the Asian Network for Free Elections, observed that political parties which won 90% of seats in the 2020 election no longer exist today, highlighting the dramatic transformation of Myanmar’s political landscape.
Joe Freeman, a researcher with Amnesty International, noted that many fear the election will only further entrench those responsible for years of human rights abuses. Horsey predicts increased conflict after the polls, as opposition forces attempt to demonstrate that the military still lacks popular legitimacy despite the election results.
Western nations have maintained sanctions against Myanmar’s military leaders, citing their anti-democratic actions and brutal campaign against opponents. However, the election may provide cover for neighboring countries to normalize relations with the regime in the name of regional stability.
As Sunday’s vote approaches, the likelihood of Myanmar returning to genuine civilian rule appears increasingly remote, with the military poised to maintain its grip on power through this carefully orchestrated electoral process.
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8 Comments
This election seems designed more to provide a veneer of legitimacy for the military junta rather than to restore democracy in Myanmar. The inability to hold voting across the country due to the civil war is very worrying.
Agreed. The military’s actions have plunged Myanmar into a terrible crisis, and this election appears to be another tactic to cling to power rather than address the country’s deep political and humanitarian challenges.
While an election is a positive step, the exclusion of opposition parties and the ongoing civil war raise serious concerns about its legitimacy. Myanmar desperately needs a return to true democratic governance, not just a show election.
It’s unfortunate to see the military in Myanmar continue to consolidate power and deny the people their democratic rights. I hope the international community closely monitors this election process and holds the junta accountable.
Absolutely. The international pressure and scrutiny will be crucial, given the military’s track record of repression and human rights abuses.
This election in Myanmar is deeply concerning given the military’s oppressive rule and the ongoing civil war. I’m skeptical it will be free or fair, as the military has excluded major opposition parties. A true return to democracy seems doubtful.
I agree, the military’s stranglehold on power makes a credible democratic process very difficult. Excluding key opposition groups is a major red flag.
I’m curious to see if any international observers will be permitted to monitor this election in Myanmar. Given the junta’s history, their presence and reporting will be crucial to evaluating the process.