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As U.S. pressure on Venezuela’s Maduro regime intensifies, security experts warn that a power vacuum could lead to something far more dangerous than the current dictatorship. Rather than bringing democratic stability, Maduro’s removal might empower entrenched criminal networks and hardline regime loyalists who have carved up the nation into territories of influence.
“If this U.S. pressure campaign goes in the direction of escalation and conflict, there’s going to be very little control over what comes next,” said Roxanna Vigil, a Council on Foreign Relations fellow and former U.S. national security official. “You could have someone potentially worse than Maduro.”
This stark assessment reflects Venezuela’s complex reality – less a centralized dictatorship and more a patchwork of territories controlled by cartels, Colombian insurgents, and regime-aligned militias. Any sudden collapse of central authority could trigger a dangerous scramble for power among these armed actors.
Jason Marczak, vice president at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, underscored this concern: “It’s hard to imagine things getting any worse than under Nicolás Maduro. But what’s critical is not just Maduro leaving, but ensuring those around him – those who perpetuate these injustices – aren’t allowed to simply take power.”
If opposition leaders María Corina Machado or Edmundo González fail to fill the void, several dangerous contenders stand ready to seize control.
Chief among them is Diosdado Cabello, considered the most feared figure in the regime and longtime number two in the Chavista hierarchy. With sweeping control over party machinery and propaganda, Cabello was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2018 for corruption, money laundering, and links to drug-trafficking networks. A Cabello-led government would likely consolidate party power, state security forces, and media control under a single hardline operator.
Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and one of Maduro’s closest political strategists, presents another scenario. Sanctioned by the U.S. for undermining democratic institutions, Rodríguez could impose a more technocratic but equally authoritarian version of Chavismo, combining negotiation skills with control over electoral processes and state information systems.
Venezuela’s long-serving defense minister Vladimir Padrino López represents the military establishment that has guaranteed Maduro’s survival. Under his leadership, Venezuela could shift toward an even more militarized model where political authority openly merges with military command structures.
Delcy Rodríguez, the current vice president and Jorge’s sister, controls critical sectors including the oil industry, positioning her at the center of opaque revenue structures sustaining the regime. Both U.S. and EU authorities have sanctioned her for human rights violations and dismantling democratic governance. A transition led by Rodríguez could further tighten state control over both the economy and political apparatus.
First Lady Cilia Flores, a longtime Chavista power broker who has held senior positions including National Assembly president and attorney general, rounds out the circle of potential successors. Her extensive political reach and influence within the party and legal system make her a pivotal actor in any succession scenario.
Perhaps most concerning is Iván Hernández Dala, who heads Venezuela’s military counterintelligence service (DGCIM) and commands the presidential guard. The U.S. State Department designated him in 2019 for gross human rights violations. According to Treasury Department documentation, under his command, security forces have carried out “brutal beatings, asphyxiation, cutting soles of feet with razor blades, electric shocks, and death threats.”
Experts believe Washington’s next moves – whether driving negotiation or escalation – will determine Venezuela’s trajectory. As Marczak emphasized, “A win isn’t just Nicolás Maduro leaving… A win is actually a transition to democratic forces.”
The alternative could be a fragmented Venezuela dominated by armed factions, where regional warlords, international criminal organizations, and remnants of the regime battle for control – creating even greater instability throughout Latin America and potentially triggering new waves of migration and humanitarian crises.
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14 Comments
The article highlights the dangerous possibility of a power vacuum in Venezuela leading to the empowerment of even worse actors than Maduro. This underscores the complexity of the situation and the need for a carefully coordinated, multilateral approach to transition and restoration of democratic institutions.
Absolutely. Reckless actions or a precipitous collapse of central authority could be disastrous, allowing hardline regime loyalists and criminal networks to seize control. Restoring stability and the rule of law in Venezuela will require patience, nuance, and a long-term commitment from the international community.
The article highlights the complex web of criminal networks, insurgents, and regime loyalists that have taken control of different parts of Venezuela. Maduro’s removal alone may not be enough to bring stability and democracy. Addressing the entrenched power structures will require a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach.
Absolutely. The situation seems to have devolved beyond a simple dictatorship into a fragmented, lawless landscape. Restoring order and the rule of law will be an immense challenge, requiring great care and coordination from the international community.
This is a deeply troubling situation. Maduro’s inner circle seems to have entrenched itself in a web of human rights abuses, corruption, and control over different regions of Venezuela. The prospect of a power vacuum leading to the rise of even more dangerous elements is extremely concerning. Careful, strategic diplomacy will be crucial to navigate this complex crisis.
You’re right, the stakes are incredibly high. Venezuela’s crisis has evolved far beyond a simple dictatorship, with various armed factions vying for control. Any missteps in addressing this situation could have catastrophic consequences for the Venezuelan people and the broader region. A measured, comprehensive approach will be essential.
The article paints a bleak picture of the entrenched power structures in Venezuela, where Maduro’s removal could unleash an even more dangerous scramble for control. This underscores the challenge of restoring democratic stability in a country that has been ravaged by corruption and violence for so long.
Absolutely. Any transition in Venezuela will require a delicate, coordinated approach to dismantle the criminal networks and armed factions that have carved up the country. Rushing into a power vacuum could have catastrophic consequences for the Venezuelan people.
This is a complex and precarious situation. Maduro’s inner circle seems deeply complicit in human rights abuses and corruption, but their removal alone may not be enough to bring stability. The fragmented control of different regions by armed groups is a concerning development that will require a nuanced, strategic response.
You make a good point. Venezuela’s crisis has evolved beyond a simple dictatorship, with various criminal and insurgent elements vying for power. Any attempt to address the situation will need to carefully consider the interplay of these different factions and their entrenched interests.
It’s concerning to hear that a power vacuum in Venezuela could potentially empower even worse actors than Maduro. The regime’s deep links to organized crime and armed militias make the path forward extremely precarious. Careful, measured steps will be essential to avoid further descent into chaos.
I agree, the stakes are incredibly high. Venezuela’s crisis has far-reaching regional implications, and any missteps could have devastating consequences. Patience, diplomacy, and a comprehensive strategy will be critical to navigating this complex situation.
This is a concerning situation in Venezuela. Maduro’s inner circle seems deeply entrenched in corruption and human rights abuses. A power vacuum could lead to further instability and the rise of even more dangerous elements. Careful diplomacy and a focus on restoring democratic institutions will be crucial.
You’re right, any abrupt collapse of central authority could trigger a scramble for power among the various armed factions. A measured, strategic approach to transition will be essential to avoid an even worse outcome for the Venezuelan people.