Maduro’s Forces Under Scrutiny Amid Rising US Tensions

As tensions escalate between Washington and the Maduro regime, military experts have revealed that Venezuela’s armed forces, despite appearing formidable on paper, have been significantly weakened by years of corruption, decay, and political manipulation. While the country would struggle to prevent a targeted U.S. strike, experts caution that any broader military operation would face complexities beyond what U.S. officials might anticipate.

Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat who publicly denounced his government at the International Criminal Court, described the current Venezuelan state as effectively criminalized. “Venezuela today resembles a fortress built on sand wrapped around a criminal regime,” he stated, adding that any potential U.S. action would be more akin to “evicting a terrorist cartel that settled next door” than invading a sovereign nation.

Medina emphasized the need for caution given Venezuela’s dense civilian population, who are themselves victims of the regime. “The only acceptable approach is overwhelming bias toward restraint and longer operational timelines, forgoing targets that cannot be struck cleanly,” he warned.

The reality of Venezuela’s military capabilities falls far short of its official statistics. Despite an impressive inventory on paper, much of the equipment has deteriorated from inadequate maintenance. The force structure is top-heavy with thousands of politically appointed generals disconnected from an estimated 100,000 lower-ranking troops, many of whom might abandon their posts under pressure.

Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, identified Venezuela’s air-naval systems as the most significant threat to potential U.S. operations. These include fighter jets, limited naval vessels, and Russian-made surface-to-air missile systems.

However, Montgomery believes these threats could be quickly neutralized by U.S. forces. “Reasonably speaking, in the first day or two of a campaign plan, we can eliminate the air and maritime threat to U.S. forces,” he said. A U.S. operation targeting cocaine production would likely begin with “simultaneous strikes on the airfields, the aircraft and the air defense weapon systems” to prevent Venezuelan responses to subsequent attacks on other assets.

When asked about Venezuela’s ability to retaliate against such strikes, Montgomery was unequivocal: “Not against an air campaign. No.”

While air defenses could be swiftly eliminated, Montgomery emphasized that a ground operation would present entirely different challenges. Venezuela’s professional military numbers between 65,000 and 70,000 personnel, many of whom “didn’t join the army to fight.” The country also maintains a sizable militia, whose combat motivation would likely depend on their loyalty to Maduro.

The country’s geography and population make a land invasion particularly daunting. “Venezuela is probably twice the geographic size of California, 35 to 40 million citizens,” Montgomery noted. “This would be a terrifically challenging ground campaign, especially if it turned into a counterinsurgency.” He added emphatically: “Today, I would not do this. I do not recommend it.”

Montgomery does, however, support a more targeted air campaign, which he believes would be more efficient than the current naval interdiction tactics. Drawing on his experience commanding U.S. Navy counter-drug operations, he noted intelligence challenges often plague such efforts.

Despite years of deterioration, Venezuela still possesses a substantial, if uneven, collection of military hardware that could complicate early phases of any U.S. military action. The inventory reportedly includes 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad rocket systems, and an estimated 6–10 operational Su-30MK2 fighter jets. Air defense systems include the S-300VM, Buk-M2E, and Pechora-2M.

U.S. officials remain concerned about Venezuela’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia, and China, which could potentially provide military support or technical expertise to bolster Venezuelan defenses.

Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, highlighted the lack of popular support for the Maduro government, noting that “numbers show only 20% of Venezuelans approve of this regime.” He warned that for over a decade, “there has been no respect for the will of the population” as Caracas continues to strengthen relationships with “anti-Western regimes that destabilize the region.”