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A “historic but narrowing” window of opportunity exists to weaken Hezbollah and restore Lebanese sovereignty following the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, according to lawmakers and experts at a House Foreign Affairs Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee hearing on Tuesday.
The session highlighted bipartisan agreement on the unprecedented chance to diminish Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon, while revealing sharp divisions over the effectiveness of current U.S. policy in capitalizing on this moment.
Committee Chairman Mike Lawler, R-NY, described Lebanon as standing “at a crossroads” with a rare opportunity to “break free of the shackles of Iran’s malign influence.” However, he expressed concern that implementation of the Lebanese Armed Forces’ (LAF) deployment to southern Lebanon has been “haphazard at best.”
Taking a more critical stance toward the administration, Ranking Member Brad Sherman, D-Calif., warned that Hezbollah is already rebuilding its capabilities. “There is a historic opportunity in Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and remove its grip on the Lebanese state,” Sherman said. “That window of opportunity, however, is narrow.”
Sherman also criticized recent characterizations of Hezbollah as “a political party that also has a militant aspect to it” by a Trump administration envoy, arguing such language undermines efforts at a critical moment when clarity is essential.
Expert testimony reinforced the complex challenges facing Lebanon’s path to stability and sovereignty. David Schenker, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, acknowledged progress but highlighted significant obstacles: “The LAF has a presence in the south that it didn’t have prior to November 2024, but they are not in control. Hezbollah still controls the region.”
According to Schenker, the core issue has shifted from the LAF’s capabilities to political determination. “At this point, the question of disarmament is not a matter of capability but of will,” he told lawmakers, noting that Hezbollah continues to thrive within Lebanon’s corruption-riddled and cash-based economy.
Fellow Washington Institute senior fellow Hanin Ghaddar emphasized that disarming Hezbollah alone would be insufficient. “Hezbollah is not sustained by weapons alone,” Ghaddar testified. “It survives through an economic and political ecosystem that protects cash flows, penetrates state institutions and enables military rebuilding.”
She identified Lebanon’s unregulated cash economy as perhaps Hezbollah’s most durable asset. “Weapons can be collected, but money keeps flowing,” Ghaddar said. “Disarmament without dismantling the cash economy will not be durable.”
All three expert witnesses agreed that U.S. support should be tied to measurable performance metrics, including progress on Hezbollah’s disarmament and economic reform. Schenker specifically called for renewed sanctions against Lebanese officials who obstruct reform.
Dana Stroul, another Washington Institute senior fellow, warned that U.S. policy remains incomplete by focusing primarily on disarmament. She highlighted upcoming Lebanese parliamentary elections as a critical juncture that could either “strengthen or undermine the anti-Hezbollah government,” with a Hezbollah-aligned victory representing the “worst-case outcome.”
The recent conflict has fundamentally altered Lebanese public discourse, according to Ghaddar, who noted: “The mythology of resistance has shattered. Peace is no longer taboo.” She argued that normalization with Israel would create additional barriers to Hezbollah’s rearmament while supporting structural reforms. “Without a credible peace horizon, disarmament and economic reform will be temporary. With one, they become structural,” she concluded.
The hearing reflects growing bipartisan recognition of Lebanon’s strategic importance in regional stability, even as disagreements persist about tactical approaches. The Biden administration has supported the ceasefire agreement and LAF deployment, while the incoming Trump administration has signaled a more confrontational approach toward Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon.
With Hezbollah’s military capabilities significantly degraded after months of conflict with Israel, experts agree the current moment represents the best opportunity in decades to reduce the group’s influence—but success will require addressing not just its weapons but also its economic power and political entrenchment in Lebanese institutions.
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34 Comments
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