Death Toll in Iran Protests Remains Disputed Amid Unprecedented Crackdown

Escalating evidence of the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown on protesters continues to emerge, as human rights organizations and medical sources struggle to determine the true scale of casualties amid internet blackouts and state intimidation. Current estimates range dramatically—from several thousand confirmed dead to tens of thousands feared killed.

“The regime’s level of violence has increased dramatically, and with the internet crackdown, it is difficult to know the true scale of the killing,” says Fatemeh Jamalpour, an Iranian journalist who has covered every major protest movement in Iran for the past two decades.

Jamalpour identified a troubling shift in regime tactics during this wave of unrest. “The new thing I have seen in these protests, something we have not seen before, is that starting on the night of January 8, the regime issued shoot-to-kill orders to the IRGC, the Basij and the riot police, authorizing direct fire,” she told reporters.

She noted that while military-grade weapons were previously used primarily in minority provinces such as Kurdistan and Baluchestan, “This time they were used across the entire country.” The situation became so dire that “Health Ministry officials told us they ran out of body bags for the dead.”

The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a U.S.-based organization tracking the violence, has documented 5,848 confirmed deaths as of January 25. Their detailed breakdown includes 5,520 protesters, 77 children under 18, 209 government-affiliated forces, and 42 non-protesters or civilians. An additional 17,091 deaths remain under investigation.

HRANA emphasizes that their confirmed figures reflect only cases that could be independently documented, with overall numbers expected to rise as more information emerges from within Iran’s information blackout.

Iranian authorities have provided only one official death toll—3,117—which hasn’t been updated in the past five days. Critics note the regime has failed to release names, locations, or supporting documentation for this figure.

Independent medical data suggests the casualties may be far higher. A working paper by Munich Med Group, authored by professor Dr. Amir-Mobarez Parasta, compiles hospital-registered fatalities from multiple Iranian cities. Using what the author describes as a conservative extrapolation model to account for underreporting during communication blackouts, the paper estimates approximately 33,130 deaths nationwide as of January 23.

Similarly, Iran International published an investigation claiming to have reviewed documents indicating more than 36,500 people were killed during just two days of protests on January 8 and 9. The outlet said these documents came from sources inside Iran, though the claims await independent verification.

The vast discrepancy between confirmed counts and higher estimates reflects not only the scale of violence but also the challenging conditions for documentation. Despite the internet shutdown, medical workers have attempted to document casualties through limited satellite connections.

“Many doctors and medical staff tried to send us their accounts and documentation through small Starlink connections,” Jamalpour said. “Medical workers say protesters were often shot in the head and neck, with intent to kill. Many were killed by multiple bullets. Some were shot from behind while trying to flee.”

The demographics of the victims point to a systematic targeting of Iran’s youth. “Among the dead are children and a 67-year-old man, but most are young people under 30,” Jamalpour noted.

She recounted the killing of Mehdi Khanmohammadi, a 67-year-old retired army colonel and pilot. “He was killed on Friday, January 9, in Saadat Abad by two bullets,” she said. “In a video, his daughter stands over his lifeless body and says, ‘Can you open your eyes and wake up?'”

The human rights crisis extends beyond those already killed. “Lawyers and human rights organizations are deeply concerned about more than 20,000 protesters who have been detained and are at risk of execution,” Jamalpour warned.

Despite the atmosphere of fear, Jamalpour detects a shift in public sentiment. “In my conversations from inside the country, I hear people’s hope for international support in freeing Iran,” she said. “And a determination to change the regime, now intertwined with anger and grief.”

As international pressure mounts on Tehran, human rights groups continue calling for transparency regarding the full scope of casualties and accountability for those responsible for the violent crackdown.