How a purge of China’s military leadership could impact the army and the future of Taiwan

China launched a major investigation into its top military leaders over the weekend, removing General Zhang Youxia, the highest-ranking military official below President Xi Jinping, for “suspected serious violations of discipline and law.”

The Defense Ministry announced Saturday that authorities are investigating both Zhang, who served as the senior vice chair of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), and General Liu Zhenli, a lower-ranking commission member who headed the military’s Joint Staff Department.

This dramatic shake-up has effectively gutted China’s top military body, leaving only one of its six members intact alongside Xi, who chairs the commission. The purge represents one of the most significant military leadership overhauls in the country’s modern history.

“Xi Jinping has completed one of the biggest purges of China’s military leadership in the history of the People’s Republic,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

The Defense Ministry provided no specific details regarding the alleged wrongdoing. The People’s Liberation Army Daily published an editorial the following day that merely reiterated the officials were under investigation for “suspected serious violations of discipline and law,” framing the action as part of China’s ongoing commitment to fight corruption – a hallmark of Xi’s leadership since 2012.

The current purge follows the October expulsion of He Weidong, the commission’s other vice chair, leaving General Zhang Shengmin as the sole remaining commission member beneath Xi. This pattern reflects Xi’s broader anti-corruption campaign, which has resulted in punishment for more than 200,000 officials since he took power in 2012.

According to a review of military statements and state media reports by The Associated Press, at least 17 generals from the People’s Liberation Army have been removed from their positions since 2012, including eight former top commission members.

K. Tristan Tang, nonresident Vasey Fellow at Pacific Forum, suggests the underlying reasons may not be fully transparent: “I do not believe any evidence publicly released or selectively leaked by Chinese authorities would necessarily reflect the core reason for Zhang’s removal. The critical point is that Xi Jinping decided to move against Zhang; once an investigation is launched, problems are almost inevitably uncovered.”

Military analysts view these purges as part of Xi’s broader strategy to reform the military and ensure loyalty within the ranks. However, the timing has raised questions about potential implications for China’s stance toward Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory and has threatened to control by force if necessary.

Just last month, China launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan following a major U.S. arms sale announcement to the island. The leadership vacuum at the top of China’s military hierarchy could influence Beijing’s immediate capabilities and decision-making regarding Taiwan.

Thomas suggests the purge “makes China’s threat toward Taiwan weaker in the short term but stronger in the long term.” He believes military escalation would be riskier in the immediate future due to “a high command in disarray,” but ultimately the reorganization would produce a more loyal, less corrupt leadership with enhanced military capabilities.

Tang disagrees with the notion that these removals significantly alter China’s readiness for potential conflict: “I do not believe the PLA’s combat readiness has been severely disrupted.”

With five of six positions on the Central Military Commission now vacant, questions remain about when these roles will be filled. The PLA Daily editorial claimed the actions against Zhang and Liu would “promote the rejuvenation of the People’s Liberation Army, and inject powerful momentum into building a strong military force.”

However, Xi faces no immediate pressure to fill these positions and might wait until 2027, when a new Communist Party Central Committee will select new military commission members. As Tang notes, Xi might only act sooner “if the objective is to create an internal counterweight to Zhang Shengmin,” the commission’s last remaining member.

The ultimate impact of this dramatic restructuring on China’s military posture, internal stability, and regional ambitions remains to be seen, but it clearly demonstrates Xi’s continued consolidation of power over all aspects of China’s government and armed forces.