FACT FOCUS: As cold hits, Trump asks, where’s global warming? Scientists say it’s still here

As much of the United States faces numbing cold, treacherous ice and heavy snow from an enormous winter storm, President Donald Trump has taken to social media to question global warming, sparking immediate pushback from climate scientists.

In a brief post on his Truth Social account Friday, the former president questioned how global warming could be real given the current cold temperatures, calling climate advocates and scientists “environmental insurrectionists.” He also described the current cold snap as “nearly unprecedented.”

Over a dozen scientists quickly refuted Trump’s claims in interviews with The Associated Press, explaining that isolated weather events don’t negate the overwhelming evidence of climate change. They emphasized a fundamental point often misunderstood in public discourse: the difference between short-term weather patterns and long-term climate trends.

“This social media post crams a remarkable amount of inflammatory language and factually inaccurate assertions into a very short statement,” said climate scientist Daniel Swain of the California Institute for Water Resources. “First of all, global warming continues — and has in fact been progressing at an increased rate in recent years.”

Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi was equally direct: “Global warming hasn’t gone anywhere, it’s here.”

The scientific data supports these assertions. The last three years have been the warmest on record globally, with temperatures rising at an accelerated pace. Globally, winter temperatures have increased by 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit (0.72 degrees Celsius) since 1995, with the previous two winters being the warmest ever recorded, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

While the United States has warmed more slowly than the global average—about half a degree Fahrenheit since 1995—December 2023 was still the fifth-hottest December on record both globally and nationally.

Scientists also note the importance of considering global patterns, not just local conditions. While about two-thirds of the United States and parts of Russia are experiencing below-normal temperatures, most of the world—including Australia, Africa, the Arctic, Antarctica, Asia, Canada, much of Europe, and Greenland—is currently warmer than average.

“Even as the Earth warms, cold days and cold winters are not projected to disappear, just become fewer in number,” explained Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer. “What happens in the U.S. during a brief period of days is not an indication of what’s happening to the U.S. as a whole or the Earth as a whole over the long term.”

Some scientists even theorize that warming in the Arctic may contribute to more extreme winter outbreaks in the eastern United States by altering jet stream patterns, though this remains an active area of research with ongoing debate.

While Trump described the current cold wave as “rarely seen,” meteorological records tell a different story. In Minneapolis, weekend temperatures were forecast to drop to minus-11 and minus-13 degrees Fahrenheit—significantly warmer than the records of minus-33 and minus-31 set in 1904. Chicago’s expected lows of 2 and 8 degrees are nowhere near the record lows of minus-15 and minus-20 from 1897.

Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini noted, “Truly historic cold waves, like those in 1978–79, 1983–85, or earlier decades, were often colder and more persistent over large regions. We are also less accustomed to severe cold now because winters overall are warmer than they were several decades ago.”

The data on temperature records further underscores this reality. According to Climate Central, U.S. weather stations with at least 50 years of data have recorded just 45 record lows in January 2024, compared to 1,092 record highs during the same period.

Ryan Maue, who served as NOAA’s chief scientist during the Trump administration, predicted that while some daily records might fall during this cold snap, particularly in the Plains, Texas, and Louisiana, breaking long-term records would be “very hard.” He noted that while the Lower 48 states might average a low of 10 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday, this remains considerably warmer than January 1985, when the average low reached 4.1 degrees.

As global temperatures continue their upward trend, these periodic cold snaps remain entirely consistent with climate science predictions—extreme weather events of all types can occur within an overall warming climate system, with cold extremes becoming less frequent and heat extremes more common over time.