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Global Climate Plans “Barely Move the Needle” as UN Report Shows Limited Progress
Nations around the world submitted their updated climate action plans this year as required by the 2015 Paris Agreement, but these efforts have produced minimal improvement in reducing Earth’s projected warming, according to a new United Nations report released Tuesday.
The UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap report indicates that the newest climate-fighting plans would reduce future global warming by only three-tenths of a degree Celsius (nearly six-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) compared to projections from last year. Complicating matters further, the report states that the Trump administration’s environmental policies will add back a tenth of a degree of warming, effectively counteracting a significant portion of global progress.
“Every tenth of a degree has ramifications on communities, on ecosystems around the world,” said Adelle Thomas, vice chair of a UN scientific panel that calculates climate impacts. “It matters in heat waves. It matters in ocean heat waves and the destruction of coral reefs. It matters long-term when we think about sea level rise.”
Under current trajectories, the report calculates that the planet will warm between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.1 to 4.5 F) if nations fulfill their latest pledges. This still significantly exceeds the internationally agreed-upon Paris target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Present policies, without further action, put the world on path for even more alarming warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius (5 F).
These findings provide critical context for upcoming UN climate negotiations in Belem, Brazil, where nations will face increasing pressure to strengthen their commitments further.
“We are making progress,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen told The Associated Press. “We have to go faster.”
The report highlights how the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, set to take effect in two months, significantly alters the global outlook. Prior to the Trump administration’s decision to exit the climate pact, the U.S. plan submitted by the Biden administration in 2024 had promised substantial emissions reductions. The UNEP noted that the U.S. did not provide comments on the report by their deadline and requested that emissions data about the country be removed. The UN agency declined but included a footnote at the U.S. request stating that it doesn’t support the report.
With the U.S. step-back, the report calculates that the rest of the world must cut an additional 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually to compensate for projected growing American carbon pollution. Last year, global greenhouse gas emissions reached 57.7 billion tons, and the report indicates that this figure needs to drop to approximately 33 billion tons annually to have a realistic chance of limiting warming to near the Paris target.
Despite the sobering outlook, there has been notable progress in the decade since the Paris Agreement. Ten years ago, before the international climate pact was established, the world was heading toward approximately 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 F) of warming. The report acknowledges that even with rapid and deep cuts in emissions from fossil fuels, global temperatures will still likely increase by at least 1.7 degrees Celsius (3.1 F) this century before potential efforts to bring them back down.
Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare, who helps manage a separate climate projections report called Climate Action Tracker, confirmed that his calculations align with the UN findings. The numbers, he said, indicate “a lack of political will.”
The report comes at a critical juncture in global climate politics, with many nations struggling to balance economic priorities with climate commitments. As developing countries continue to industrialize and energy demands increase worldwide, the path to meaningful emissions reductions grows increasingly challenging, requiring unprecedented international cooperation and accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies.
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18 Comments
Hmm, so even with updated climate plans, the projected warming is still far off track from the Paris Agreement goals. This underscores how difficult it is to drive emissions cuts across the global economy.
Exactly, the inertia in the system is immense. Policymakers will need to get much more creative and aggressive to spur the necessary technological and behavioral shifts.
Every tenth of a degree matters for vulnerable communities and ecosystems around the world. This underscores the pressing need to accelerate the transition to clean energy and other climate solutions.
Absolutely. The human and environmental costs of inaction are becoming increasingly clear. We must find ways to drive much faster emissions cuts in the coming years.
The UN report highlights the enormous challenge we face in reducing global emissions. Every tenth of a degree matters, which underscores the need for immediate, transformative action across all sectors.
Absolutely. The stakes are high, and the time for incremental steps has passed. Bold, coordinated policies are required to drive the rapid emissions cuts necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Even modest progress is proving difficult, which is deeply concerning given the urgency of the climate crisis. We must find ways to accelerate the transition to renewable energy and other climate solutions.
While any progress is welcome, the UN report paints a sobering picture. Even incremental gains in emissions reductions are proving painfully slow. Urgent, transformative action is clearly needed.
The modest emissions reductions from updated climate plans are concerning given the scale and urgency of the climate crisis. Bolder policies and greater international cooperation will be essential.
The Trump administration’s contribution of an additional 0.1°C of warming is disheartening. It’s clear that political leadership is critical for making progress on this existential threat.
I agree, the lack of political will from some major emitters is a huge obstacle. Stronger global coordination and accountability will be essential going forward.
It’s disappointing to see that even with updated climate plans, the world is still falling far short of the emissions reductions needed. This underscores the immense challenge we face in transitioning to a low-carbon future.
The Trump administration’s contribution of additional warming is particularly troubling. Effective climate action requires strong, consistent leadership at the highest levels of government.
Agreed. Regressive policies from major emitters can undermine global progress. Sustained, coordinated effort from all countries will be essential to get emissions on the right trajectory.
This report is a sobering reminder that more urgent action is needed to combat climate change. Even modest progress is proving challenging as countries struggle to implement meaningful emissions reductions.
You’re right, the incremental gains are discouraging given the scale of the challenge. Governments will need to take bolder steps to drive the transformative change required.
This report serves as a wake-up call that current efforts are far from sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Governments, businesses, and citizens will all need to step up their climate actions.
Absolutely. Transformative change is needed across all sectors of the economy. Incremental steps are no longer enough – we need a massive mobilization to tackle this existential threat.