As US pressure grows for leadership change in Cuba, a Castro could be the next president

Speculation mounts over potential leadership changes in Cuba as pressure builds from the United States. President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who in 2018 became the first non-Castro to lead Cuba since the 1959 revolution, faces growing doubts about whether he will complete his remaining two years in office.

Against a backdrop of economic crisis and diplomatic maneuvering, two Castro family members have emerged as possible successors, signaling that the Castro family influence in Cuban politics remains potent despite Fidel and Raúl’s formal retirements.

Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, Raúl Castro’s 55-year-old great nephew, has rapidly ascended to power after years in relative obscurity. Appointed as Cuba’s Minister of Foreign Trade and Investment in May 2024, he was subsequently elevated to deputy prime minister in October. Pérez-Oliva’s background includes electrical engineering studies and leadership roles in import businesses and Cuba’s Mariel Special Development Zone.

Unlike many high-profile Cuban officials, Pérez-Oliva maintained a low profile until recently. He began appearing alongside Cuban diplomats on international trips to Russia and Vietnam earlier this year. His private X account bears the inscription: “Committed to the Revolution and to the ideas of FIDEL.”

Notably, Pérez-Oliva displayed a more pragmatic approach during a national crisis in February when a massive blackout hit western Cuba. While other officials solely blamed U.S. sanctions, he acknowledged “internal deficiencies” rather than just pointing to the American embargo.

Carlos M. Rodríguez Arechavaleta, a Cuba expert at the Iberoamerican University in Mexico City, describes Pérez-Oliva as having “the profile of a technocrat with commercial negotiation skills,” potentially signaling a more reform-oriented approach within the confines of Cuba’s political system.

The second potential successor, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro—Raúl Castro’s grandson commonly known as “Raulito” or “Little Raúl”—represents a more direct dynastic line. Unlike Pérez-Oliva, Rodríguez Castro has never held a formal government post, instead serving as his grandfather’s bodyguard and later heading Cuba’s equivalent of the U.S. Secret Service.

Rodríguez Castro gained attention last month after a secret meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of a Caribbean Community summit in St. Kitts. Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, suggests: “The role Raulito is playing right now is the connection between Raúl Castro and whoever is on the U.S. side. He enjoys the absolute trust of Raúl Castro.”

The son of Raúl Castro’s oldest daughter and Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja—who ran GAESA, the military’s business conglomerate, until his unexpected death in 2022—Rodríguez Castro once had a reputation as a fixture in Cuba’s nightlife scene. Known by the nickname “El Cangrejo” (The Crab) due to being born with an extra finger, his recent appearance at high-level diplomatic discussions has raised eyebrows among Cuban citizens.

Despite the focus on potential successors, experts emphasize that real power in Cuba continues to reside with 94-year-old Raúl Castro. Though officially retired, he remains the military’s general and is widely considered Cuba’s most influential figure.

“The most significant thing that we have to consider for the last 30 years in Cuba is the absolute reluctance of this regime to implement serious structural economic reforms,” Arcos noted. “Asking them for political reforms would be too much.”

Díaz-Canel has faced mounting unpopularity as Cuba’s economic and energy crises have intensified. His administration’s harsh response to the July 2021 anti-government protests—the largest in decades—further damaged his standing among many Cubans.

“The living conditions of the population are on the verge of a humanitarian crisis,” said Rodríguez Arechavaleta. “The social situation is already unsustainable.”

Cuban officials have publicly rejected speculation about leadership changes. Last week, Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío firmly stated: “The Cuban political system is not up for negotiation, nor is the president, nor the position of any official in Cuba, subject to negotiation with the United States or with the government of any other country.”

Nevertheless, experts suggest that Díaz-Canel’s position remains tenuous, while Raúl Castro’s eventual death could create unprecedented uncertainty in Cuba’s leadership structure.

“No one really knows who’s coming up to replace him,” Arcos said. “For the first time ever in Cuba, you have the possibility of several people struggling for power.”