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Despite diplomatic warming, Vietnamese military views US as potential threat
A classified Vietnamese military document has revealed that even as Vietnam upgraded its relations with the United States to their highest diplomatic level last year, military planners in Hanoi were simultaneously preparing for a potential American “war of aggression” and categorizing the US as a “belligerent” power.
The document titled “The 2nd US Invasion Plan,” completed by Vietnam’s Ministry of Defense in August 2024, was highlighted in a report released Tuesday by The 88 Project, a human rights organization focused on Vietnam. The report exposes a stark contrast between Vietnam’s public diplomatic stance and its internal military assessment.
“This isn’t just some kind of a fringe element or paranoid element within the party or within the government,” said Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project and the report’s author. “There’s a consensus here across the government and across different ministries.”
The military document suggests that in pursuing its “objective of strengthening deterrence against China,” the United States and its allies are prepared to use unconventional warfare and even conduct large-scale invasions against countries that “deviate from its orbit.” While acknowledging that “currently there is little risk of a war against Vietnam,” the planners emphasized the need for vigilance to prevent the US from “creating a pretext” for invasion.
The document traces what Vietnam’s military perceives as a progression of American strategy through three administrations—Barack Obama, Donald Trump’s first term, and Joe Biden—with Washington increasingly developing military relationships in Asia to “form a front against China.”
This assessment starkly contrasts with the public diplomatic relationship between the two nations. In 2023, President Biden signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with Vietnam, elevating bilateral relations to the highest diplomatic level—placing the US on par with Russia and China as Vietnam’s “trusted partners with a friendship grounded in mutual respect.”
Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the report. The US State Department declined to address the document directly but emphasized that the partnership agreement “promotes prosperity and security for the United States and Vietnam” while ensuring “the Indo-Pacific remains stable, secure, free and open.”
Nguyen Khac Giang of Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute noted that the military plans highlight tensions within Vietnam’s political leadership. “The military has never been too comfortable moving ahead with the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States,” Giang said, pointing to the influence of the Communist Party’s conservative, military-aligned faction.
These tensions surfaced publicly in June 2024 when US-linked Fulbright University was accused of fomenting a “color revolution” by Vietnamese army media—a reference to popular uprisings that have toppled regimes in other countries, such as the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine or the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines. Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry subsequently defended the university.
“This pervasive insecurity about color revolutions is very frustrating, because I don’t see why the Communist Party is so insecure,” said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington and author of “The Vietnam People’s Army: From People’s Warfare to Military Modernization?” He noted Vietnam’s economic achievements, adding, “They have so much to be proud of—they have lifted so many people out of poverty, the economy is humming along, they are the darling of foreign investors.”
The documents reveal that while China and Vietnam have territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Vietnamese military planners view China more as a regional rival than an existential threat like the United States. “China doesn’t pose an existential threat to the Communist Party (of Vietnam),” Abuza explained. “Indeed, the Chinese know they can only push the Vietnamese so far.”
Vietnam continues a delicate balancing act, with China as its largest two-way trade partner and the US as its largest export market. Under Vietnamese leader To Lam, who became Communist Party general secretary around when the document was written and was recently reappointed, the country has continued to strengthen US ties while maintaining its cautious approach.
The Trump Organization’s recent groundbreaking of a $1.5 billion Trump-branded golf resort in Vietnam and Lam’s swift acceptance of an invitation to join Trump’s Board of Peace suggest warming relations. However, Trump’s military operation regarding Venezuela’s former president has reportedly reinforced Vietnamese conservatives’ concerns about closer US alignment.
“The Vietnamese are going to be confused by the Trump administration, which has downplayed human rights and democracy promotion, but at the same time been willing to violate the sovereignty of states and remove leaders they don’t like,” Abuza concluded.
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9 Comments
The contrast between Vietnam’s public diplomatic stance and its internal military assessment is quite striking. It suggests there are still deep-seated security concerns, even as they seek to strengthen economic and political ties with the US.
It will be important to see how this plays out going forward, and whether the Vietnamese military’s threat perceptions can be addressed through continued diplomacy and confidence-building measures.
This report highlights the complexities of US-Vietnam relations. While the two countries have come a long way, there are clearly still unresolved issues and areas of mistrust, particularly from the Vietnamese military’s perspective.
I’m curious to learn more about the specific concerns outlined in the Vietnamese military document. What strategic factors are driving their assessment of the US as a potential threat?
This report highlights the complexities of navigating US-Vietnam relations in the current geopolitical landscape. While progress has been made, it’s clear that the Vietnamese military still harbors significant concerns about American intentions and potential aggression.
Interesting that the Vietnamese military views the US as a potential threat, even as they upgrade diplomatic ties. Sounds like there are still underlying tensions and concerns, despite the public warming of relations.
I wonder what’s driving the Vietnamese military’s concerns about the US. Could it be lingering mistrust from past conflicts, or fears about US regional influence and intentions?
The Vietnamese military’s internal document is a sobering reminder that even as diplomatic ties improve, underlying security concerns can persist. It will be important for both sides to continue working to build trust and address these deep-seated issues.
It’s interesting that the Vietnamese military is focusing on deterring China as a key US objective. I wonder if that shapes their view of the US as a potential threat, despite the diplomatic warming.