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A stark new report reveals that the Russia-Ukraine war could reach a grim milestone by spring, with combined casualties potentially hitting 2 million. Russia appears to be bearing the heaviest toll, suffering what experts call the largest number of troop deaths for any major power in a conflict since World War II.
The analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), released Tuesday, comes as the war approaches its fourth anniversary in February. According to the report, Russia has already sustained approximately 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025.
“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report states. “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.”
The toll on Ukraine has been severe as well, though proportionally smaller given its more limited population and military. The CSIS estimates Ukraine has suffered between 500,000 to 600,000 military casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths.
The Kremlin quickly dismissed the findings. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that the research could not be considered “reliable information” and insisted that only Russia’s Ministry of Defense could provide accurate data on military losses. However, the ministry has maintained a near-total information blackout on casualties, with its last official statement in September 2022 claiming just under 6,000 Russian soldiers had been killed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in February 2025 that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died since the war began, though this figure is substantially lower than independent estimates.
The CSIS compiled its figures using its own analysis, data published by the independent Russian news site Mediazona in collaboration with the BBC, British government estimates, and interviews with officials. Mediazona and its partners have documented over 160,000 Russian troop deaths by meticulously tracking news reports, social media, and government websites—an effort made necessary by the Russian government’s suppression of casualty information.
Despite Russia’s overwhelming numerical advantage and recent initiative on the battlefield, its advances have been remarkably slow. The report characterizes Russia’s offensive as progressing at just 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in its most prominent operations—a pace the CSIS describes as “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.”
This sluggish advance suggests the conflict has settled into a war of attrition. Analysts believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is content to maintain this grinding pace despite the enormous human cost, showing little interest in negotiating a settlement.
Putin has consistently claimed that 700,000 Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine, a figure he has repeated since 2024, up slightly from the 617,000 he cited in December 2023. Independent verification of these numbers remains impossible.
As the report was released, violence continued across Ukraine. An overnight attack in Bilohorodka on the outskirts of Kyiv killed two people, according to Mykola Kalashnyk, head of the regional military administration. Additional Russian strikes in Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and the Zaporizhzhia region wounded at least nine others and damaged infrastructure.
Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia launched a massive overnight assault involving one ballistic missile and 146 strike drones, with Ukrainian forces managing to neutralize 103 of the unmanned aircraft through anti-air defenses or electronic warfare.
Russian authorities claimed their own defensive success, reporting that they destroyed 75 Ukrainian drones overnight across the southwestern Krasnodar region, occupied Crimea, and the Voronezh region. In the latter, Ukraine’s General Staff said they struck the Khokholskaya oil depot, with Russian Governor Alexander Gusev acknowledging that falling drone debris sparked a fire involving oil products.
As the conflict drags through another harsh winter with no end in sight, the staggering human toll continues to mount on both sides, with civilians caught in the crossfire and soldiers dying by the thousands in what has become Europe’s deadliest conflict in generations.
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16 Comments
While the report’s findings are deeply disturbing, I’m not entirely surprised given the scale and intensity of the fighting in Ukraine. The sheer number of casualties highlights the catastrophic humanitarian crisis unfolding there.
You make a good point. The human toll of this conflict is truly heartbreaking, and the international community must redouble efforts to find a peaceful resolution before even more lives are lost.
The projected casualty figures for Russia in particular are staggering. If accurate, it would represent an unprecedented loss of military power and personnel for a major global power in a single conflict. The implications could be far-reaching.
Absolutely. Russia’s ability to project power and influence on the global stage could be severely compromised if these losses continue. It’s a sobering reminder of the high price of military adventurism.
While the human toll on both sides is tragic, the disproportionate impact on Russia’s military is quite striking. This could significantly weaken their combat capabilities and force them to reconsider their long-term strategy in the region.
You raise a good point. Russia’s ability to sustain this level of losses over an extended period seems highly questionable. It may ultimately limit their options and room for maneuver going forward.
The report’s findings on the potential 2 million combined casualties is deeply concerning. I hope the international community can intensify efforts to broker a ceasefire and negotiate a diplomatic solution before the situation deteriorates further.
Agreed. At this stage, finding a way to end the bloodshed and suffering on both sides should be the top priority for all parties involved.
This conflict has already taken an immense human toll, and it seems poised to get even worse based on these projections. It underscores the urgent need for a political resolution to stop the carnage.
Absolutely. The staggering casualty figures are a stark reminder that there are no winners in war, only tremendous loss and devastation. Diplomacy must prevail over further escalation.
This is a very sobering report. The scale of casualties in this war is truly staggering, even for a major power like Russia. It’s a stark reminder of the immense human cost of armed conflict.
You’re right, the numbers are absolutely shocking. This underscores how critical it is to find a diplomatic solution to end this devastating war.
The figures on Russian casualties are especially eye-opening. If these projections are accurate, it would represent an unprecedented toll for a major military power in a modern conflict. The ramifications for Russia’s global influence could be profound.
Absolutely. The fact that Russia has sustained such massive losses while making only minimal gains in Ukraine really highlights the strategic blunders and miscalculations behind this invasion.
This report highlights the urgent need for a diplomatic solution to end the fighting in Ukraine. The human toll is simply too high, and the potential long-term consequences for all parties involved are deeply concerning.
I agree wholeheartedly. At this point, the priority must be to find a path to peace and stability, even if it requires difficult compromises from all sides. The alternative is unthinkable.