A month after Iran protests began, worry pervades Mideast over possible US strike

Iranian officials have intensified diplomatic outreach across the Middle East as tensions rise over the possibility of a U.S. military strike, one month after nationwide protests erupted in Iran, triggering a deadly government crackdown.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have publicly declared they will not allow their airspace to be used for any military action against Iran. Despite these declarations, the U.S. has moved significant naval assets into the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and several guided missile destroyers, positioning forces capable of launching offshore attacks.

President Donald Trump’s intentions regarding military action remain uncertain, though he has established two clear conditions that could trigger a response: the killing of peaceful demonstrators and potential mass executions of detained protesters. On Wednesday, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform: “Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!”

In a stark warning, Trump referenced previous military action, writing: “The next attack will be far worse!”

The Iranian government has largely cut the country off from the global internet for approximately three weeks, limiting information access for citizens. State media, which now exclusively refers to protesters as “terrorists,” has become the primary news source for many Iranians, who are increasingly anxious about their safety and the nation’s deteriorating economy.

“I feel that my generation failed to give a better lesson to younger ones,” said Mohammad Heidari, a 59-year-old high school teacher in Tehran. “The result of decades of teaching by my colleagues and me led to death of thousands, and maybe more injured and prisoners.”

Diplomatic channels have been operating at full capacity. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has spoken separately with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in an effort to “work toward achieving calm, in order to avoid the region slipping into new cycles of instability.” Iranian state media has acknowledged that third-party mediators have established contact, though the White House has not confirmed any communication.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke directly with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, reiterating that Saudi territory would not be used for military actions against Iran. This position mirrors that of the UAE. Both Gulf nations host American military assets and personnel, and both have experienced attacks attributed to Iran or Iranian-backed forces in recent years.

Qatar, home to Al Udeid Air Base—Central Command’s forward operating headquarters and America’s largest military installation in the region—has also engaged in high-level talks with Iranian officials, including Araghchi and security official Ali Larijani.

The current tensions follow a June incident where Iran attacked Al Udeid in retaliation for American airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which came after Israel launched a 12-day military campaign against Iran.

“Our position is exactly this: Applying diplomacy through military threats cannot be effective or constructive,” Araghchi told journalists on Wednesday. “If they want negotiations to take shape, they must abandon threats, excessive demands, and the raising of illogical issues.”

Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based organization with a track record of reliable reporting on Iranian unrest, has released disturbing new casualty figures. The group claims at least 6,221 people have died during the protests and subsequent crackdown, including 5,858 protesters, 214 government-affiliated personnel, 100 children, and 49 non-participating civilians. Additionally, more than 42,300 people have reportedly been arrested.

The Iranian government disputes these figures, reporting 3,117 deaths, with 2,427 being civilians and security forces, and categorizing the remainder as “terrorists.” Historically, Iran has been known to undercount casualties from civil unrest.

This death toll exceeds any other period of unrest in Iran in decades, approaching levels reminiscent of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The protests, which began on December 28 following the collapse of the Iranian currency, quickly spread nationwide before facing a brutal government response.

Adding to the tension, Iran on Wednesday announced the execution of Hamidreza Sabet, convicted of spying for Israel—the 13th such execution since the June conflict.