Social Media Disinformation and Its Link to Offline Violence

Social media disinformation has become a powerful tool for political actors seeking to shape public perception and mobilize supporters. These narrative strategies often target marginalized populations, portraying them as threats or sources of societal problems. While such disinformation campaigns effectively rally supporters, they also increase the risk of violence against vulnerable groups and can potentially lead to mass atrocities.

Despite growing research on the relationship between social media mis/disinformation (SMM) and offline violence, there remains a critical gap in systematic data collection efforts that could help identify when online false narratives translate into real-world harm. Better tracking methods could significantly improve early warning and early action systems, especially during politically contentious periods.

The relationship between online disinformation and offline violence is particularly concerning in the United States, where a robust SMM environment exists alongside growing political polarization. Understanding this dynamic is crucial as the country approaches the 2024 presidential election, a period when early warning systems will be vital for preventing potential violence.

False narratives spread through various media channels, from online forums to mainstream outlets like Fox News, creating self-reinforcing cycles of misinformation. Political elites may adopt these narratives to shape legislation and policies, while political entrepreneurs leverage them to drive mobilization. Despite their harmful potential, social media platforms have largely failed to implement effective content moderation, allowing false claims and conspiracy theories to proliferate.

When monitoring online content for potential offline violence, experts focus on two main approaches: tracking broader narrative patterns and identifying specific credible threats. Narrative tracking involves analyzing how false information shapes public discourse and potentially inspires violence. This often includes monitoring content that builds “in-groups” while vilifying “out-groups,” creating an “us versus them” mentality that can fuel recruitment and mobilization.

However, tracking these narratives presents significant challenges. They evolve rapidly, making it difficult to monitor them systematically. Additionally, the volume of content generated across platforms is overwhelming, and the use of coded language, symbols, humor, and visual elements complicates automated monitoring efforts.

When identifying credible threats, experts look beyond general expressions of anger to specific “calls to action” – detailed plans outlining where and when to mobilize. The platform where this content appears also matters; information shared in closed, private channels among group members is more likely to indicate concrete plans than similar content posted on public-facing platforms.

Context is equally important. For instance, anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric during Pride month might signal a higher risk of violence due to the opportunity to leverage existing narratives during a significant period. Similarly, identifying patterns of networked harassment can help evaluate the credibility of violent threats.

Successful disinformation campaigns often share common themes and strategies. These include narratives centered on victimhood (like the Great Replacement Theory), existential threats (such as the “Stop the Steal” movement), and saviorism (exemplified by QAnon conspiracy theories about child trafficking). Content creators frequently employ speculative framing, humor, recycled historical tropes, and strategically timed new narratives to combat audience fatigue.

However, experts emphasize that the substance of a narrative isn’t necessarily the most reliable indicator of its potential impact. Instead, who shares the content—the “nodes of influence”—may be more significant. Influencers with money, political connections, or perceived intellectual authority can significantly affect their followers’ decisions and actions. The platform where content appears also matters, as it indicates the intended audience and their likelihood to mobilize.

Understanding how disinformation moves across platforms is crucial. Many narratives emerge on fringe platforms like InfoWars before appearing on more mainstream outlets like Fox News. Monitoring this progression can provide early indications of which false narratives may eventually gain widespread acceptance.

To better understand the relationship between online disinformation and offline violence, several initiatives could be implemented. In the short term, systematic monitoring of fringe spaces like 4chan’s /pol/ board could help identify emerging narratives before they reach mainstream audiences. Medium-term efforts might include developing reliability assessments of reported future events, helping determine which planned activities are most likely to occur. Longer-term projects could involve building a comprehensive network of influencers across platforms to track how narratives spread through key nodes.

The research field would benefit from an improved understanding of historical precedent, as many new disinformation campaigns recycle previous narratives. Better monitoring of visual media is also crucial, as videos and images can be particularly effective in emotional mobilization. Increased collaboration within the research community would reduce redundancies and maximize limited resources.

For this work to continue, donors must provide sustained support, especially during contentious periods like elections. Social media companies should standardize data accessibility across platforms and improve documentation practices to ensure information remains available for research and legal proceedings.

As political tensions rise and disinformation proliferates, understanding the connection between online falsehoods and offline violence becomes increasingly important. Through systematic tracking and analysis, researchers can develop more effective early warning systems to help prevent violence against vulnerable populations.