Analyst Warns of Social Media Bot and Spam Narratives as Election Approaches

Japan’s upcoming Lower House election, set for February 8, faces growing concerns over digital disinformation campaigns that intelligence analysts warn could influence voter opinions and potentially tarnish candidates’ reputations.

Intelligence experts are monitoring what they describe as “cognitive warfare” – sophisticated disinformation tactics designed to sway public opinion and voting behavior as the official campaign period began on January 27. These concerns echo similar patterns observed during last summer’s Upper House election.

Nasa Tatsuguchi, lead analyst at Japan Nexus Intelligence Inc. (JNI), a firm specializing in social media monitoring, has identified suspicious activity from foreign-language accounts that have suddenly increased their Japanese-language content output. One particularly noteworthy X (formerly Twitter) account with tens of thousands of followers previously focused on pro-China narratives in English and Chinese but recently pivoted to Japanese-language posts.

“Since late November, this account has intensified its Japanese content, with many posts specifically critical of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi,” Tatsuguchi noted. One post described the dissolution of the Lower House as “a foolish act that clearly undermines Japan’s interests.”

Though the account lists its location as “China,” its messaging is gaining traction beyond its original source. “It is not just pro-China accounts,” Tatsuguchi explained. “Japanese accounts that are critical of Prime Minister Takaichi are also disseminating this content, and it has achieved high engagement.”

The threat extends beyond individual accounts to coordinated networks. JNI has detected an increase in automated accounts, or bots, programmed to repeatedly share political content. In December, the firm identified multiple accounts exhibiting bot-like behavior, with some appearing to have modified their profiles to push specific political narratives.

While these accounts haven’t yet demonstrated overtly coordinated activity, Tatsuguchi remains vigilant. “The possibility remains that they will spread a specific narrative to coincide with the election period, so we must not take our eyes off their movements,” she warned.

These current concerns mirror similar issues that emerged during last summer’s Upper House election. A JNI investigation at that time identified approximately 9,400 accounts engaged in suspicious bot-like activity. Further analysis of 170 of these accounts revealed that 77 showed a suspicious spike in reposting during the campaign period. The content primarily included criticism of then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and narratives concerning “foreigners.”

The Japanese government has acknowledged these potential threats. During the Upper House election, then-digital transformation minister Masaaki Taira stated, “there have been some reports to that effect” regarding possible foreign interference. In response, the government announced a policy last September to centralize intelligence gathering and strengthen its capabilities to counter such threats.

While Tatsuguchi cautioned that “We cannot definitively conclude that foreign intervention did or did not occur,” she emphasized the importance of public vigilance. “It is important for each individual to calmly assess any information spreading on social media and judge its authenticity, while keeping the possibility of interference in mind,” she advised, suggesting that users should be particularly attentive to accounts posting exclusively about certain topics.

The Japanese government is taking these concerns seriously. On January 23, the internal affairs ministry formally requested that social media platform operators address election-related disinformation. At a news conference, internal affairs minister Yoshimasa Hayashi stated, “There is a variety of information on the internet. We ask everyone to carefully verify its authenticity.”

As Japan approaches this crucial election, the battle against disinformation highlights growing concerns about digital interference in democratic processes, a challenge increasingly faced by democracies worldwide.