US Crop Yield Decline Claims Largely Unfounded, Analysis Shows

Despite Climate Concerns, Crop Yields Continue to Rise, but Some Trends Warrant Attention

For decades, climate activists have warned that global warming would devastate crop production, potentially threatening food security worldwide. These claims have been amplified by some research papers and media coverage. However, the agricultural reality tells a more nuanced story: despite rising global temperatures, crop yields have consistently increased both in the United States and globally, particularly for essential cereal crops like corn, wheat, and soybeans.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently forecasted record-high yields for corn and soybeans for 2025, contradicting the most dire climate predictions. This upward trajectory in crop productivity represents a significant agricultural achievement amid changing climate conditions.

A closer examination of the data, however, reveals a potentially concerning trend: the rate of yield growth appears to be slowing for some key crops. U.S. corn yields, for example, increased from approximately 2 metric tons per hectare in 1961 to nearly 6 metric tons per hectare in 2025, representing an average annual growth rate of 117 kg per hectare. But when isolating just the past decade (2015-2025), that growth rate dropped dramatically to only 16 kg per hectare annually.

This potential slowdown deserves attention because increasing crop yields remains critical for global food security, environmental sustainability, and economic stability. Higher yields allow farmers to produce more food without converting additional land to agriculture—a crucial factor as the global population continues to grow. Since 1961, improved crop yields have prevented the conversion of over 1.8 billion hectares of land to agricultural use—an area larger than Russia. Yield growth also helps maintain affordable food prices, an important economic consideration for consumers worldwide.

However, agricultural experts caution against interpreting the recent slowdown as evidence of a permanent trend. The data shows that U.S. corn yields have followed a clear long-term upward trajectory since at least 1961, though with considerable decade-to-decade variation. Between 1978 and 1988, for instance, corn yields increased by only 27 kg per hectare annually, while from 2000 to 2010, they jumped by 178 kg per hectare per year.

Weather conditions have played a significant role in these fluctuations. The past decade’s slower growth coincided with challenging weather events—excessive rainfall in 2019, destructive derechos in 2020, and drought with high temperatures in 2022. While some researchers suggest climate change may increase the frequency of such extreme weather events, the current data doesn’t yet indicate a fundamental shift in the long-term growth trend.

The picture becomes more complex when examining crops beyond the major cereals. While corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton have maintained fairly steady yield increases over the past 60 years, some specialty crops show concerning patterns. Among the top four vegetable crops—potatoes, sweet corn, lettuce, and tomatoes—yield growth has slowed for lettuce and tomatoes, with lettuce yields actually declining.

Other specialty crops displaying declining yields in the past decade include strawberries, sweet potatoes, spinach, and oranges. Each crop faces unique challenges. Strawberry yield declines may relate to hotter temperatures in California growing regions, though this remains a short-term trend. Sweet potato yields plummeted in 2018 following Hurricane Florence, while other declines coincide with expansion onto marginal lands. The decline in spinach yields partially reflects increased organic production, which typically produces lower yields than conventional methods.

Perhaps most dramatic is the orange yield decline, largely attributed to citrus greening disease that devastated Florida’s orange industry after its detection in 2005. California has now surpassed Florida as the largest U.S. orange producer, implementing strict quarantine measures to prevent the disease’s spread while researchers work on treatments.

Addressing these yield challenges requires strategic investment and policy support. Agricultural research and development funding has historically driven yield improvements, but U.S. government spending on agricultural research declined by a third between 2000 and 2020. A 2023 study by The Breakthrough Institute estimated that doubling public investment in agricultural R&D could boost agricultural output by 69.5% by 2050—significantly outpacing business-as-usual projections.

Emerging technologies offer promising solutions. Bayer and gene-editing company Pairwise have developed shorter corn varieties less susceptible to wind damage. Corteva has announced a potentially scalable approach to producing hybrid wheat with improved yields and drought tolerance. Such innovations could contribute significantly to future yield growth, similar to how dwarf wheat, rice, and hybrid corn drove productivity gains during the Green Revolution.

Regulatory frameworks also influence agricultural innovation. Regulations affecting genetically engineered crops, pesticides, and farm technologies must balance safety concerns with the need for continued productivity improvements.

The stakes are global. Meeting projected food demand by 2050 will require substantial yield improvements. Even with current growth rates, an additional 600 million hectares—an area the size of Algeria—would need conversion to farmland absent faster yield increases. This underscores the importance of continued investment in agricultural research and technology to ensure food security while protecting natural ecosystems.