Russia’s Demand for Security Guarantees Attempt to Portray Itself as Victim, Expert Says

Russia’s Demands for Security Guarantees Seen as Propaganda Tactic, Expert Says

Russia’s insistence on security guarantees for itself in any Ukraine peace deal is merely an attempt to reinforce false propaganda narratives and push maximalist demands, according to a German security expert.

Mario Baumann, project manager and research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), told Ukrinform that the Kremlin’s positioning serves a deliberate strategic purpose in the ongoing conflict.

“By demanding its own security guarantees, the Kremlin reinforces the regime’s false propaganda narrative that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is a defensive reaction to a non-existent threat from Ukraine or from the West/NATO,” Baumann explained.

This rhetoric, according to the expert, deliberately obscures Ukraine’s status as the victim in the conflict while suggesting Russia also needs protection. Such framing helps Moscow shift blame away from its aggression, a narrative that has found receptive audiences in some Western circles.

Baumann specifically pointed out that former U.S. President Donald Trump has echoed similar accusations against Ukraine, demonstrating how effectively Russia’s blame-shifting tactics can penetrate international discourse.

The expert’s comments come in response to recent statements by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, who declared that any peace agreement must include “security guarantees for Russia” and not solely focus on Ukrainian interests. Grushko went further, suggesting that without such guarantees for Moscow, a peaceful resolution would be impossible.

Baumann interpreted Grushko’s opposition to providing Ukraine with reliable security guarantees from Western allies as evidence that “Russia has no genuine interest in ending the violence.” Such guarantees would typically be considered a prerequisite for any meaningful ceasefire.

The DGAP analyst sees Moscow’s victim portrayal as serving a broader geopolitical agenda. “Russia is attempting to use this self-portrayal as a victim to advance its maximalist demands, including a revision of the European security order in line with Russia’s own vision,” he said.

This approach appears particularly targeted toward the United States, which has recently increased pressure on Ukraine regarding potential peace negotiations. Baumann noted that Washington has largely excluded European partners from its discussions with Moscow, creating additional complications in the diplomatic landscape.

The timing of Russia’s security guarantee demands comes amid growing international debate about the war’s trajectory and possible resolution scenarios. As military and financial support for Ukraine faces increasing scrutiny in Western capitals, Moscow appears to be positioning itself to exploit any fractures in the alliance supporting Kyiv.

Security experts have long warned that Russia’s concept of its own security often extends to controlling neighboring states’ foreign policy decisions, particularly regarding NATO membership. Ukraine’s pursuit of Western integration has been a central point of contention throughout the conflict.

The German Council on Foreign Relations, where Baumann serves as a research fellow, is one of Germany’s leading foreign policy think tanks, providing analysis on international security issues with particular expertise on Eastern Europe and Russia.

As peace talks continue to be discussed in various formats, the fundamental question of security guarantees—who receives them and what they entail—remains a critical point of contention that will likely determine whether any diplomatic solution can be reached in the near term.