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Russian propaganda is set to escalate claims about Ukraine’s supposed “winter unpreparedness” in the latter half of October 2025, according to a new intelligence assessment from Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council.

The report, cited by Ukrainian National News (UNN), warns that Russian media operations will deliberately attempt to sow panic among Ukrainians by exploiting concerns about the country’s energy infrastructure, which has been repeatedly targeted by Russian forces.

“The Kremlin plans to paint a catastrophic picture of Ukraine’s energy and heating capabilities,” the intelligence assessment states, noting that the timing coincides with the seasonal transition to colder weather when energy concerns naturally rise among the population.

The disinformation push appears strategically timed to coincide with the European Union’s consideration of its 20th sanctions package against Russia. According to Ukrainian security officials, Moscow will intensify efforts to undermine both the sanctions themselves and the transatlantic unity that has sustained pressure on Russia since its full-scale invasion in 2022.

“Traditionally, the Kremlin will spread narratives about the alleged ‘ineffectiveness of sanctions’ and try to provoke disagreements within the EU,” the report explains, highlighting Russia’s continued attempts to fracture Western resolve.

Energy infrastructure has remained a critical vulnerability for Ukraine throughout the conflict. Russian forces have systematically targeted power plants, substations, and heating facilities in what military analysts describe as a deliberate strategy to make Ukrainian civilian life untenable during harsh winter months. Previous winters have seen Ukrainians endure rolling blackouts and heating disruptions as repair crews worked to restore damaged systems.

The intelligence assessment also warns of several additional disinformation vectors likely to emerge. Ukrainian officials expect a new wave of manipulations regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, which has been under Russian military control since the early phase of the invasion. Safety concerns at the plant have repeatedly triggered international alarm.

Russia is also expected to amplify narratives about the “militarization of Europe,” a theme Moscow has consistently used to portray NATO and European defense initiatives as aggressive rather than responsive to Russia’s own military actions.

Furthermore, the report indicates that Russian propaganda will continue attempts to discredit the EU’s recent decision to authorize the shooting down of Russian aircraft and drones that violate certain airspace restrictions—a policy development that represents an escalation in European involvement.

This anticipated propaganda campaign builds upon Moscow’s established pattern of information warfare. Earlier disinformation efforts cited in the report included a fabricated narrative suggesting Ukraine might attack Poland with the intention of blaming Russia—a classic false flag scenario meant to drive wedges between Ukraine and its key allies.

Media and information security experts note that Russian disinformation typically blends factual elements—such as genuine energy challenges—with exaggerations and fabrications to create plausible-sounding narratives that resonate with target audiences’ existing concerns.

Ukrainian authorities are proactively publishing these assessments as a countermeasure, hoping that awareness of Russian information tactics will help inoculate the public against potential panic and preserve social cohesion during what promises to be another challenging winter period for the war-torn country.

The forecasted disinformation push represents just one element of Russia’s hybrid warfare approach, which combines conventional military operations with cyber, economic, and information warfare to achieve strategic objectives beyond the battlefield.