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In Russia, Public Support for Ukraine War Appears Fragile Despite Official Narratives
As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its fifth year, public sentiment among Russians presents a complex and contradictory picture. Recent polling suggests just over half of Russians expect the conflict to conclude by 2026, yet a majority simultaneously support escalation if negotiations fail.
This ambiguity in Russian public opinion provides President Vladimir Putin with sufficient cover to continue pursuing his military objectives in Ukraine. However, a deeper analysis reveals that public support for the war may be more tenuous than Kremlin officials would like to believe.
Western strategy has largely operated on the assumption that economic sanctions would eventually pressure Russian elites or the general populace to convince Putin to abandon the conflict. This approach presumes that Putin’s legitimacy rests on an implicit social contract: Russian citizens remain loyal to the Kremlin provided they enjoy a stable standard of living and freedom from state interference in their private lives.
Even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this social contract showed signs of strain as the Russian economy struggled since 2014. Now, after four years of war, the combination of exclusion from European markets and military spending that has tripled has led to economic stagnation and mounting pressure on living standards.
However, the social contract framework may underestimate the power of ideology. Putin’s “Make Russia Great Again” narrative appears to resonate with a significant portion of the population. Polls consistently show his approval rating exceeding 80% since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, though the reliability of polling in an authoritarian society at war remains questionable.
Some scholars point to a “rally around the flag” effect following Russia’s military actions against Ukraine in both 2014 and 2022. Yet it remains unclear whether this surge in support reflects genuine sentiment or simply what respondents perceive as socially acceptable answers in a repressive environment.
The Kremlin has carefully managed the war’s public image, concealing casualty figures and avoiding full-scale conscription by recruiting volunteers with high pay. It has also drawn on reserve funds to maintain economic stability. This strategy leaves open the question of whether the “Putin consensus” might eventually collapse if the war’s costs begin to affect the average Russian more directly.
Most observers believe Russian society breaks down into three groups: a small minority opposing the war, a slightly larger minority enthusiastically supporting it, and a majority who passively accept state policies. Independent pollsters still operating in Russia report support for the “special military operation” ranging between 60% and 70%, though these figures must be viewed with skepticism.
Researchers face significant challenges in gauging authentic public opinion in a country where laws against “spreading fake news” or “discrediting the army” carry lengthy prison sentences. Even the Levada Center, still considered relatively reliable, conducts face-to-face interviews that yield very low response rates. For many Russians, refusing to answer or providing socially acceptable responses represents a rational strategy.
Beyond polling data, everyday practices offer additional insights into genuine war support. If popular enthusiasm were high, military recruitment offices would be overwhelmed—they are not. Instead, Russia relies heavily on financial incentives, aggressive advertising, prison recruitment, and coercive mobilization tactics. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have fled the country, hidden from authorities, or sought legal exemptions to avoid conscription.
The concept of “internal emigration”—citizens avoiding political discussions and minimizing interactions with authorities—has resurfaced as political repression has intensified. This practice, dating back to Soviet times, became more common after Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012.
While state-sponsored “Z” symbols (representing support for the war) dominate public spaces, privately displayed signs of support have largely disappeared. Humanitarian aid for soldiers often comes through schools and churches, where participation stems from social or administrative pressure rather than genuine war enthusiasm.
Russians’ cultural consumption tells an equally revealing story. Music charts feature personal relationship songs rather than patriotic anthems. Book sales show strong demand for works like Orwell’s “1984” and Frankl’s Holocaust memoir “Man’s Search for Meaning,” suggesting Russians are seeking to understand authoritarianism and moral responsibility rather than celebrating militarism.
Meanwhile, Putin’s campaign to promote “traditional values” struggles to gain traction, with Russia maintaining one of the world’s highest divorce rates while birth rates continue to decline.
As the war grinds on, the disconnect between official Kremlin narratives and ordinary Russians’ lived experiences grows increasingly apparent—echoing the Soviet Union’s final decade, when government messaging became increasingly detached from public sentiment. While history may not repeat itself exactly, the current parallels should give Kremlin leadership pause for reflection.
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18 Comments
This report highlights the complexities of gauging public sentiment in Russia. The Kremlin’s ability to maintain popular support for the war effort may be more fragile than official rhetoric implies.
Agreed. The longevity of this ‘social contract’ between Putin and the Russian people will be a crucial factor in the trajectory of the conflict.
The potential fragility of the ‘Putin consensus’ is an intriguing angle. It suggests the Kremlin’s grip on public opinion may be more tenuous than commonly assumed.
Absolutely. If living standards continue to deteriorate, the Russian public’s willingness to support the war effort could erode over time.
It will be interesting to see how the situation evolves as the war drags on. The potential fragility of Putin’s ‘social contract’ with the Russian people is a factor worth watching closely.
Absolutely. The long-term sustainability of public support is crucial for Putin, especially if living standards deteriorate further due to sanctions.
The ambiguity in Russian public opinion is quite striking. It suggests the Kremlin’s control over the narrative may not be as firm as it would like the world to believe.
Yes, the cracks in the ‘Putin consensus’ could widen if economic conditions worsen and the war drags on. This bears close monitoring.
This report highlights the complexity of public sentiment in Russia regarding the Ukraine war. The ambiguity in polling data suggests the Kremlin’s control over the narrative may be more fragile than it appears.
Agreed. The sustainability of Putin’s ‘social contract’ with the Russian people will be a key factor to watch as the conflict drags on.
The complex and ambiguous nature of Russian public opinion on the Ukraine war is quite intriguing. It seems President Putin still has enough support to continue the conflict, but the fragility of that consensus is concerning.
You raise a good point. The Kremlin’s ability to maintain public backing could be more precarious than it appears, despite the official propaganda.
The potential fragility of the ‘Putin consensus’ is an intriguing angle. It suggests the Kremlin’s grip on public opinion may be more tenuous than commonly assumed, which could have significant implications for the war’s trajectory.
Absolutely. If living standards continue to deteriorate and the conflict grinds on, the Russian public’s willingness to support the war effort could erode over time, presenting challenges for the Kremlin.
The potential fragility of the ‘Putin consensus’ is an intriguing and concerning angle. It suggests the Kremlin’s grip on public opinion may be more tenuous than commonly assumed, which could present challenges for the Kremlin’s ability to sustain the war effort in the long run.
Absolutely. If living standards continue to deteriorate and the conflict grinds on, the Russian public’s willingness to support the war effort could erode over time, potentially forcing the Kremlin to reconsider its strategy.
This report highlights the complex and contradictory nature of public sentiment in Russia regarding the Ukraine war. The ambiguity in polling data suggests the Kremlin’s control over the narrative may be more fragile than it appears, which could have significant implications for the conflict’s trajectory.
Agreed. The sustainability of Putin’s ‘social contract’ with the Russian people will be a crucial factor to monitor as the war drags on and economic conditions potentially worsen.