Russia Revives Soviet-Era Propaganda Tactics Against Baltic States, Report Finds

Russia is redeploying familiar propaganda narratives against the Baltic states that mirror those used to justify previous invasions of former Soviet republics, according to a new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published on October 14.

“Kremlin officials continue to apply the same narratives to the Baltic states that Russia has used to justify its invasions of former Soviet states in the past three decades,” the ISW report states. These recycled narratives include claims about “liberating brotherly peoples,” granting them “additional rights and freedoms,” and protecting Russian-speaking communities.

The analysis comes as high-ranking Russian officials have escalated their rhetoric toward Baltic nations, particularly Latvia. Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin claimed on October 14 that Latvian authorities are “persecuting” Russian speakers, suggesting Moscow has an obligation to defend its “compatriots” in the region.

Leonid Slutsky, who heads Russia’s far-right Liberal Democratic Party, reinforced this position by asserting that Russians in Latvia belong to the so-called “Russkiy Mir” or “Russian World” – a concept that has previously been weaponized to justify territorial aggression.

The Kremlin’s “Russian World” ideology represents a deliberately ambiguous concept that President Vladimir Putin has broadly defined. According to Putin, this encompasses territories that historically belonged to the Kyivan Rus, the Kingdom of Muscovy, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and modern-day Russia. The definition extends to anyone who feels a “spiritual or cultural kinship” with Russia, creating an expansive and malleable justification for intervention.

Security analysts note with concern that this rhetorical pattern mirrors Russia’s approach before previous military actions. For decades, Moscow has invoked the protection of “compatriots abroad” to justify interventions in Moldova, Georgia, and most recently, Ukraine. The ISW warns that this renewed focus on ethnic Russians in the Baltics may represent groundwork for potential future aggression against NATO member states.

The Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – have been NATO members since 2004, meaning any Russian aggression would trigger the alliance’s collective defense provisions under Article 5. However, this has not deterred Moscow from maintaining a hostile posture toward these former Soviet republics.

Russia’s current rhetoric directed at the Baltic region bears striking similarities to propaganda deployed ahead of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and earlier operations in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Before launching its assault, the Kremlin repeatedly claimed that Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine faced “genocide” and required protection – allegations widely dismissed as fabricated by international observers and organizations.

This pattern of justifying aggression as humanitarian intervention has become a hallmark of Russian foreign policy under Putin. By claiming to defend “oppressed compatriots,” Moscow attempts to frame offensive military actions as defensive measures, preparing domestic audiences for conflict while muddying international responses.

The timing of this escalated rhetoric coincides with Latvia’s introduction of stricter residency rules for Russian citizens. As of October 13, Latvian authorities required 841 Russian nationals to leave the country under these new regulations, providing Moscow with a pretext to amplify its claims of persecution.

For the Baltic states, which regained independence following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Russian propaganda campaigns represent a familiar threat. These nations have long warned Western allies about Russia’s revisionist ambitions and information warfare tactics.

The ISW report underscores the importance of recognizing these propaganda patterns as potential precursors to more aggressive actions. While Russia’s immediate military capacity remains focused on Ukraine, analysts caution that the Kremlin’s long-term strategic objectives may include destabilizing or threatening NATO’s eastern flank, with the Baltic states representing particularly vulnerable targets due to their geographic proximity, sizeable Russian-speaking populations, and Soviet historical connections.