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Chinese City Battles Population Decline with “Tianmen Model”
In Tianmen, a small city of 500,000 in central China’s Hubei province, propaganda billboards featuring happy, multi-child families have become a common sight. One prominent display shows a large family playing under a blue sky with the message: “Siblings are the greatest gift parents can give their child.”
This messaging is part of an aggressive campaign as Tianmen positions itself at the front line of China’s national battle against demographic decline. Local officials proudly tout the “Tianmen model,” citing a 17% year-on-year increase in births for 2024, with 7,217 newborns following eight consecutive years of falling birth rates.
The city’s efforts have garnered attention in state media, which has praised Tianmen’s approach as potentially replicable across a nation facing profound demographic challenges.
At the Wanda shopping mall, which serves as a social hub for the city, young parents Zhang Yu, 27, and Xiong Longji, 28, recently visited a private infant care center on the top floor to bathe and tend to their three-month-old daughter, Wanzi. Despite describing their infant as “adorable” and relatively easy to care for, the couple, like many Chinese parents today, have no plans to expand their family.
“She’s easy, but we don’t intend to have a second child,” Xiong told reporters.
This hesitancy to have multiple children reflects a broader national trend that has alarmed Chinese authorities. For three consecutive years, China’s population has contracted, with 2025 expected to mark a fourth year of decline. The fertility rate has plummeted to just one child per woman, far below the 2.1 needed for population stability and less than half the 2.5 rate recorded in 1990.
The United Nations categorizes China’s current fertility level as “very low,” a classification that portends significant societal and economic challenges. The country now faces the dual pressures of a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce—a combination that threatens to undermine economic growth and strain social security systems.
Unlike Japan or South Korea, which encountered similar demographic challenges after achieving high-income status, China faces these issues at a comparatively lower level of economic development. This timing creates additional complications for funding elder care and maintaining the economic momentum needed to achieve China’s long-term development goals.
The “Tianmen model” represents one of many local efforts to combat this national crisis. Since abandoning the one-child policy in 2016 and further relaxing family planning rules to encourage three-child families in 2021, Chinese authorities have implemented various incentives to boost birth rates. These include housing subsidies, tax benefits, extended maternity leave, and improved access to childcare.
However, demographic experts note that these measures have thus far failed to significantly reverse the downward trend in fertility. Young Chinese cite multiple factors discouraging larger families: high housing costs in urban areas, expensive education, demanding work cultures, and evolving social attitudes toward family formation.
The infant care center at Tianmen’s Wanda mall symbolizes the types of supportive infrastructure being developed to ease the burden of child-rearing. Yet the experiences of parents like Zhang and Xiong suggest that practical support may not be enough to overcome the complex socioeconomic factors limiting family size.
As China navigates this demographic transition, the stakes remain extraordinarily high. Population dynamics will significantly influence the nation’s economic trajectory, geopolitical standing, and social stability in coming decades. Whether the “Tianmen model” can provide valuable lessons for the rest of the country remains to be seen, but the urgency of finding effective solutions continues to grow with each passing year.
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14 Comments
It’s an interesting approach, but I’m skeptical that propaganda and subsidies alone can reverse long-term demographic trends. China faces deep-seated economic and cultural factors that may require more fundamental reforms to truly support families and childbearing.
You make a fair point. Tackling entrenched social and economic realities will be crucial if China wants to achieve a lasting solution to its declining birth rates.
This article highlights the Chinese government’s heavy-handed tactics to address its demographic challenges. While the “Tianmen model” may provide a short-term boost, a more holistic, voluntary approach that empowers families could yield better long-term results.
Agreed. Coercive population policies tend to backfire, so China would be wise to focus on improving conditions for families rather than relying on propaganda and subsidies.
It’s fascinating to see how China is responding to its declining birth rates. While the “Tianmen model” may provide a temporary boost, I wonder if a more nuanced, voluntary approach that addresses the root social and economic factors would yield better long-term results.
Agreed. Coercive policies tend to have unintended consequences, so China would be wise to focus on creating an environment that enables and supports families rather than relying on heavy-handed tactics.
The “Tianmen model” showcased in this article seems to rely heavily on propaganda and government incentives. While that may bump up birth rates temporarily, a sustainable solution will likely require addressing root causes like cost of living, childcare support, and work-life balance.
Agreed. Effective population policies need to go beyond surface-level measures and tackle the complex societal issues driving the decline in births.
The Chinese government’s aggressive approach to boosting birth rates, as outlined in this article, raises some concerns. While subsidies and propaganda may produce short-term results, a more balanced, voluntary strategy that empowers families could lead to more sustainable, long-term solutions.
You make a valid point. Respecting individual choice and addressing the underlying social and economic factors behind declining birth rates is likely a more effective path forward for China.
The Chinese government’s aggressive measures to address declining birth rates are certainly eye-catching. While subsidies and pro-family propaganda may boost short-term numbers, I wonder if a more holistic approach addressing societal pressures and economic realities would be more effective long-term.
You raise a good point. Coercive policies could backfire if they don’t address the deeper social and economic factors underlying the declining birth rate.
The Chinese government’s efforts to prop up birth rates are understandable given the country’s demographic challenges, but the heavy-handed tactics described in this article are concerning. A more balanced approach that respects individual choice would likely be more effective in the long run.
Well said. Sustainable population policies need to empower people, not just bombard them with propaganda and financial incentives.