Democrats Gain Ground in California’s Redistricting Battle, But Republicans Hold Overall Edge

California voters approved a new congressional map this week, handing Democrats a victory in the ongoing national redistricting battle ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The approval of Proposition 50 reshapes the state’s congressional districts in a way that could give Democrats an opportunity to win five additional House seats.

The unusual mid-decade redistricting efforts began this summer when President Donald Trump urged Republican-led states to redraw their voting districts to help the GOP maintain control of the House after the 2026 election. Democrats need to gain just three seats to win the chamber and potentially impede Trump’s legislative agenda.

Texas was the first state to respond to Trump’s call, adopting a new U.S. House map designed to help Republicans win up to five additional seats. California’s countermove with Proposition 50 aims to offset these potential Republican gains.

“If the 2026 election goes according to the redistricting projections, Democrats in California and Republicans in Texas could cancel each other’s gains,” said political analysts tracking the redistricting battle.

However, Republicans still appear to have an overall advantage in the redistricting contest. New districts adopted in Missouri and North Carolina could help Republicans win one additional seat in each state, while a recently approved U.S. House map in Ohio boosts Republicans’ chances to win two more seats.

Several uncertainties remain in the redistricting landscape. The Ohio districts are considered competitive enough that Democrats believe they have a chance to win them. Legal challenges persist in Missouri, North Carolina and Texas, while Missouri’s redistricting law faces a referendum petition that could suspend the new map until a statewide vote.

In California, Republican legal challenges continue against the new districts, which replace boundaries drawn by an independent citizens commission after the 2020 census with maps created by the Democratic-led Legislature. On Wednesday, Republicans filed a federal lawsuit alleging the mapmakers illegally used race as a factor to favor Hispanic voters and asked the court to block implementation of the new districts.

J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Center for Politics notes that while Democrats could potentially win up to 48 of California’s 52 U.S. House seats, several districts remain closely divided between Democratic and Republican voters. “Some of the Democratic districts are probably going to vote blue, but I wouldn’t call them locks,” Coleman said. “You could still have some expensive races.”

Republican-controlled Indiana appears to be next in line for redistricting consideration. After initially declining to convene a special session on Monday, lawmakers are now planning to address redistricting during a rare December regular session. Republicans currently hold seven of Indiana’s nine U.S. House seats and could attempt to gain one or two more through redistricting.

In Kansas, Republican lawmakers had been gathering signatures to call a special session to draw an additional Republican-leaning congressional district, but House Speaker Dan Hawkins ended the effort Tuesday amid resistance from some lawmakers. The issue could still emerge during Kansas’ regular legislative session beginning January 12.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said he hopes California’s redistricting “sends a chilling effect on Republicans who are trying to do this around the country.” However, he warned, “if the Republicans continue to do this, we will respond in kind each and every step of the way.”

Democrats in other states are considering similar redistricting efforts. Maryland’s Democratic governor recently announced a commission on congressional redistricting, though the Democratic Senate president has expressed concerns about the effort potentially backfiring. In Illinois, national Democrats want lawmakers to redraw districts to gain an additional House seat, but legislators have resisted citing concerns about representation for Black residents.

Virginia’s Democratic-led legislature recently endorsed a proposed constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting, though it requires another round of legislative approval early next year before going to voters. Democrats could potentially gain two or three more seats through redistricting there.

The stakes are particularly high given the narrow House majority. David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, noted: “Because we have this tiny numerical sliver separating a Democratic majority from a Republican majority, the stakes are incredibly high — even in a single state considering whether to redraw its districts.”

The redistricting battle isn’t likely to end with the 2026 election. The Republican State Leadership Committee warned in a recent memo that “the redistricting arms race has escalated to an every cycle fight” — no longer centered around each decennial census. New York Democrats are pursuing a constitutional amendment that could allow redistricting ahead of the 2028 election, and several states under split partisan control could pursue congressional redistricting if next year’s election shifts the balance of power.

“It’s important to recognize that the fight for 2027 redistricting — and the U.S. House in 2028 — has already started,” RSLC President Edith Jorge-Tuñón wrote, signaling that the battle over district lines has become a permanent feature of American politics.