US Military Would Reach Breaking Point Within Weeks in Conflict with China, Heritage Report Warns

A newly released Heritage Foundation report warns that the United States military would reach a breaking point within weeks of engaging in a high-intensity conflict with China over Taiwan, according to a partially redacted analysis that relied exclusively on publicly available data.

The report, titled “TIDALWAVE,” paints a sobering picture of American military capabilities in a potential Taiwan conflict scenario, concluding that U.S. forces would culminate far sooner than their Chinese counterparts. Despite using only open-source government, academic, industry, and commercial information, portions of the report were redacted at the request of senior national security officials concerned that adversaries could exploit the findings or identify military vulnerabilities.

Unlike traditional war games, TIDALWAVE employed an AI-enabled model that ran thousands of iterations, tracking how losses in platforms, munitions, and fuel compound over time. The analysis reveals a cascade of operational failures that would likely occur early in a conflict with China.

“The first 30 to 60 days of a U.S.-China war determine its long-term shape and outcome,” the report states, as early losses rapidly compound and cannot be recovered quickly enough to maintain operational effectiveness.

The report identifies several critical vulnerabilities in America’s military posture. U.S. reliance on a small number of large, concentrated forward bases—particularly in Japan and Guam—leaves American airpower dangerously exposed to Chinese missile forces. In multiple scenarios, up to 90% of U.S. and allied aircraft positioned at major forward bases could be destroyed on the ground during the opening phase of the conflict.

Precision-guided munitions emerge as another critical weakness. The report finds that essential U.S. weapons systems—including long-range anti-ship missiles, air-to-air interceptors, and missile-defense systems—would begin to be unavailable within five to seven days of major combat operations. Most scenarios show these critical munitions completely exhausted within 35-40 days.

Fuel logistics represent perhaps the most decisive vulnerability. While the U.S. would not necessarily run out of fuel, it would lose the ability to transport fuel effectively under fire. Chinese doctrine explicitly prioritizes attacks on logistics vessels, ports, pipelines, and replenishment tankers. Even limited disruptions to this supply chain would force commanders to sharply curtail air and naval operations despite having fuel reserves elsewhere.

By contrast, China appears better positioned to sustain prolonged combat operations. While Chinese ammunition stockpiles would begin to deplete after approximately 20-30 days, substitution effects would extend China’s ability to sustain combat operations for months—well beyond the point at which U.S. forces would be unable to continue fighting effectively.

The economic consequences would be equally devastating. The report concludes the U.S. is highly unlikely to prevent massive global economic fallout once a Taiwan conflict begins. Disruption of shipping lanes, destruction of critical infrastructure, and the collapse of Taiwan’s semiconductor production would trigger a global economic shock estimated at roughly $10 trillion—nearly a tenth of global GDP—with enduring ripple effects across financial markets, manufacturing, and global trade.

Perhaps most alarming, TIDALWAVE warns that the scale of losses in the Indo-Pacific would leave the U.S. unable to deter or respond effectively to a second major conflict elsewhere in the world. This vulnerability could embolden other adversaries such as Russia, Iran, or North Korea to pursue aggressive actions, fundamentally destabilizing global security.

The report comes amid years of concern over U.S. military readiness and industrial capacity. While China rapidly expands its naval forces and shipbuilding capabilities, the U.S. Navy operates a smaller fleet than planned, and American shipyards face workforce shortages, aging infrastructure, and chronic delays.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth and other military leaders have pledged to put the Pentagon on a wartime footing for industrial capacity, but the Heritage report suggests these efforts may be insufficient and too slow to address the scale of the challenge.

To avoid what the authors describe as a strategic defeat, the report urges Congress to immediately expand munitions stockpiles, strengthen fuel reserves and distribution infrastructure, harden and disperse forward bases, and accelerate sustainment and logistics reforms.

With intelligence warnings suggesting China could move on Taiwan before the end of the decade, TIDALWAVE cautions that the window to correct these deficiencies may be closing faster than Washington is prepared to act.