Trump wants to keep farmers happy with cash. They’re still worried about the future

American Farmers Express Skepticism Over Trump’s $12 Billion Aid Package Amid Ongoing Trade Tensions

When Donald Trump promised new tariffs during his presidential campaign, Minnesota farmer Gene Stehly feared that trade disputes would threaten his international sales of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Now, those concerns have materialized, and Trump’s recent promise of federal assistance falls short of covering farmers’ losses.

“Maybe this will all come out to be better at the end, but I can tell you right now, it certainly isn’t the case at the moment,” Stehly said.

On Monday, the Trump administration announced a $12 billion one-time payment package for farmers who have suffered from persistently low commodity prices, rising costs, and declining sales after China halted agricultural purchases from the United States during the ongoing trade war.

While rural areas remain conservative strongholds, farmers’ patience with Washington is wearing thin. Many describe the government bailout—reminiscent of similar policies during Trump’s first term—as a welcome stopgap that nonetheless fails to address the agricultural industry’s fundamental problems.

“It’s a bridge. It’s not the ultimate solution we’re looking for,” said Charlie Radman, a fourth-generation farmer who grows corn and soybeans near Randolph, Minnesota, on land his family has owned since 1899. “What we really want to have is a little more certainty and not have to rely on these ad hoc payments.”

American soybean and sorghum farmers, who typically export at least half of their crops, have been hit hardest by the trade dispute with China. As the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, China has increasingly turned to harvests from Brazil and other South American nations to fulfill its needs.

While Trump and his Cabinet have touted the deal struck with Chinese President Xi Jinping in October, the results have been underwhelming. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy, offered a noncommittal statement this week, saying only that “agriculture trade cooperation between China and the United States is proceeding in an orderly manner.”

The reality paints a different picture. China has purchased only about a quarter of the 12 million metric tons of soybeans that U.S. officials claimed would be bought before the end of February. This raises serious doubts about whether Beijing will follow through on longer-term commitments to purchase 25 million metric tons annually over the next three years—figures China has not confirmed.

“In general, I don’t trust their motives and integrity of their promises,” said Bryant Kagay, a farmer from northwest Missouri.

Even if China does buy the agreed amount of American soybeans, that would merely return U.S. farmers to approximately the export levels they enjoyed before Trump’s first term. This reality has led farmers like Minnesota’s Glen Groth to call for a broader approach: “I’d like to see the administration focus more on opening up markets outside of China.”

Agricultural groups are pushing to expand both international buyers and domestic uses for their products, including biodiesel, ethanol, aviation fuel, and animal feed. Dan Keitzer, who farms soybeans and corn in southeast Iowa, emphasized that technological advancements producing bigger harvests mean the industry needs more customers.

“I think most farmers would tell you that they don’t want to go to the mailbox and get a check from the government. That’s not why we farm,” Keitzer said. “We need more demand for our product.”

This isn’t the first time Trump has used federal payments to placate farmers. During his first term, his administration provided $22 billion in 2019 to cushion the impact of trade disputes with China, followed by $46 billion in 2020, a figure expanded to address financial challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The current $12 billion package will cap payments at $155,000 per farmer or entity, with eligibility limited to farms making less than $900,000 in adjusted gross income. However, during Trump’s first administration, numerous large farms found ways around payment limits and collected millions.

Beyond direct payments, farmers want Trump to address the rising costs that are eroding their profits. The president recently signed an executive order directing the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission to investigate anti-competitive practices throughout the food supply chain—from fertilizer, seed, and equipment suppliers to meat packing companies and grocers.

Tregg Cronin, who farms and ranches with his family in central South Dakota, expressed gratitude for the president’s acknowledgment that farmers are “caught in the middle” of the trade war. But he noted a sobering reality about any government assistance: the checks farmers receive will likely “get turned around and sent right out the door” to cover mounting expenses.

As farmers order supplies for next year’s crops and discuss loans with their bankers, they remain cautiously optimistic that crop prices will improve if they can secure more buyers. However, the current aid package, while helpful in the short term, does little to address their long-term concerns about market access and profitability in an increasingly competitive global environment.