Trump led Republicans to power. Now he’s confronting the limits of his influence

Republicans Face Midterm Challenges as Trump’s Issue Advantage Erodes

President Donald Trump’s successful 2024 electoral strategy, which capitalized on voter concerns about the economy, immigration, and crime, appears increasingly difficult to replicate as Republicans prepare for upcoming midterm elections. Recent polling and electoral results suggest the GOP faces significant headwinds in maintaining its complete control in Washington.

Democrats have scored notable victories in the past month, including winning the Miami mayor’s race for the first time in 30 years and securing a special election victory in a historically Republican district in Georgia. These outcomes have raised alarms among Republican strategists about the party’s messaging effectiveness and voter appeal.

Even Trump’s influence within his own party shows limitations. On Thursday, he failed to persuade Indiana state senators to approve a new congressional map that would have potentially delivered two additional Republican seats in the House of Representatives.

More concerning for Republicans is the erosion of Trump’s standing on the very issues that powered his comeback. According to a recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, only 31% of U.S. adults now approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, down from 40% in March. This decline comes despite the president’s unwavering self-confidence, having told Politico he gives himself an “A+++++” on economic performance.

Similar declines are evident in public perception of Trump’s handling of crime and immigration. Despite deploying the National Guard in Washington and other Democratic-led cities, approval of his approach to crime has fallen to 43% from 53% just months earlier. On immigration—his signature issue since entering politics—support has dropped from 49% to 38%.

“If you’re not concerned, then you’re living in a cave,” Senator Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) told reporters Thursday. “If you’re not watching the elections that are happening all the time, then you’re living in a cave. We’re not good at our messaging a lot of times as Republicans. The Democrats are professionals at it. We’re not good at it.”

With Democrats just a few seats away from reclaiming the House majority, Republicans worry about a potential repeat of the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained 40 seats. While historically the president’s party typically loses congressional seats in midterm elections, the competitive landscape has narrowed due to redistricting and evolving voting patterns.

Trump remains publicly bullish about his party’s prospects. “People want us to win the midterms, and I think we have great spirit,” he said at an event Wednesday. His chief of staff, Susie Wiles, recently indicated Trump will campaign aggressively, effectively putting him “on the ballot” for the midterms. However, this strategy faces challenges, as evidenced by a recent Pennsylvania trip meant to address inflation that was overshadowed by controversial comments about immigrants.

Additional headaches for the administration include being forced by rogue Republicans to release Jeffrey Epstein files and legislation containing several measures opposing Trump’s Defense Department initiatives.

Despite these challenges, many Republican candidates in competitive districts are standing by Trump. John Braun, a Washington state senator challenging Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, said he would welcome a Trump visit to his district and noted with approval that Vice President JD Vance plans to increase his campaign travel.

Braun emphasized that affordability remains voters’ top concern. “We have a lot of work to do and a lot of it’s going to depend at the national level in particular on what Republicans do to affect the affordability issues,” he said. “People are interested in many things, a wide range of issues. But top of mind right now is how do I support myself, my family in the current environment?”

The affordability challenge was underscored Thursday when the Senate rejected an extension of health care subsidies, ensuring millions of Americans will face higher costs in January. Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) warned that this situation is more perilous for Republicans than their unsuccessful 2018 attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

“Us failing to put something else in place did not create this cliff that people are going to encounter,” Tillis explained. “That’s the fundamental difference in an election year.”

Representative Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) expressed doubt about the effectiveness of messaging in the face of tangible economic pain. “If people suddenly pay thousands of dollars more for health care, I don’t know what kind of messaging is going to matter in that circumstance,” he said. “Unfortunately, that’s what a lot of the energy around here seems to be devoted to.”

With nearly a year until the midterm elections, Republicans face mounting pressure to address voter concerns about affordability while maintaining their electoral coalition in an increasingly challenging political environment.